International events, April 1-15
New agricultural restrictions from the EU, Poland and Germany nationalize Ukrainians
April is already over, but I am still digesting the events that took place. Today, I decided to have a look at some of the Ukraine-adjacent events that took place beyond its borders.
EU and IMF
Some of my previous posts went into the problems that the post-2022 free trade regime Ukraine has enjoyed with the EU has caused for the latter’s agricultural sector. Numerous influential voices in the EU advocated for a return to severe restrictions on Ukraine’s agricultural exports.
Nevertheless, on April 9 the EU made a preliminary decision (it will be finalized on June 5) that the current free trade arrangement would continue for another year. Rikard Jozwiak, the Radio Svoboda journalist who announced the news, noted that there were new restrictions - ‘protective mechanisms’ will be implemented for bird meat, eggs, sugar, oats, corn, cereals and honey. Tariff quotas will be returned for these products in case Ukraine’s export of them to the EU exceeds the mid 2021-late 2023 levels. This means that Europe’s farmers have won some concessions, concessions which will cost Ukraine 331 million euros in income according to Jozwiak.
Meanwhile, the IMF announced on April 4 it would not restructure Ukraine’s debt. Ukraine will have to pay $3 billion USD to the IMF this year. That won’t be Ukraine’s only future financial burden, given that two days later, Zelensky also agreed to the American Republican proposition to give Ukraine aid in the form of credit with interest.
Poland and Germany
Polish public opinion and state policy appears steadily cool towards Ukraine. While the grain blockade has eased up of late (I wrote about it here and here), public attitude could leave much to hope for. According to an April 10, three out of four Poles oppose sending NATO troops to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, on April 4 it was announced that Ukrainian children are now legally now required to attend Polish schools. Currently, 50-60 thousand Ukrainian children in Poland are still studying at Ukrainian schools over zoom. This new Polish move seems like yet another attempt to integrate Ukrainians into Polish society as productive workers, future or present, rather than refugees whose ostensible future aim is to return home.
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