Dobropillya breakthrough

Yearly net losses of 159 thousand. Chaos and lies. 'The forward line of defense has ceased to exist'. Fortifications without infantry. Russian poncho tactics. Corps reform failure.

Russian troops have advanced a record 18 kilometers over just the past two or three days near the town of Dobropillya.

According to Bild’s military analyst Julian Roepcke, ‘The coming hours are decisive for the fate of the 29% of the Donetsk region still controlled by Ukraine.‘ Roepcke believes the current Russian advance carries huge stakes for the war as a whole:

It must also be clearly stated: If Ukraine fails to eliminate a few hundred Russian soldiers—on foot and far from their own logistics—it is unlikely that the Ukrainian army can hold the region in the long term.

We are thus in critical hours that will also have significant impacts on the morale and motivation of the remaining civilian population and Ukrainian troops in the region.

Ukraine must now act decisively and, within a few days, recapture at least an area of approximately 15 x 5 kilometers. If this does not succeed, the cycle of thinly manned front lines and further territorial losses will continue and accelerate unchecked.

In this case, it is highly likely that Russia will withdraw its offer of a Ukrainian retreat from Donbas in exchange for a ceasefire elsewhere.

I’ve gathered the most interesting Ukrainian military commentary on the topic of the Dobropillya breakthrough I could find. Some highlights:

The disintegrating army:

Once again: we have a net loss of 159,000 troops per year.
The enemy is gaining roughly 9–10 thousand per month.
That’s plus 120 thousand per year. And they haven’t even really started mobilization yet.

Visions of collapse:

First, we "lose ground" at the platoon level. Then at the company level. Now it’s reached battalions. Once it gets to brigades—the enemy will deploy its armored groups, which have been actively building up for about a year now—and push into the rear, into operational space. And the map will once again start "shifting" like it did in 2022—by tens, hundreds of square kilometers per day.

Lies and chaos:

The situation is fairly chaotic: having found gaps in the defense, the enemy seeps deep in, tries to consolidate quickly, build up forces for further advances — while some individuals in the command of a certain brigade either do not fully grasp the seriousness of the problem, or present the situation as “under control,” claiming that “everyone has been killed, everyone has been stopped.”

The forward line of defense, as we understood it before, has ceased to exist – the enemy is successfully infiltrating kilometers deep into the lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with friendly and enemy positions chaotically intermixed in the area.

There is essentially no stable line of contact anymore.

Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are nearly encircled. Kostiantynivka is semi-encircled. The enemy is advancing toward Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka.

Infantry famine:

However, the enemy is bypassing our well-constructed fortifications with ease — and will later occupy them and use them for its own defense. As soldiers comment: “The worst part is that if they take them, there’s no fucking way we’ll throw them out.” This is an example of how, alongside well-built fortifications, you need the personnel to hold them, as well as effective command to use such assets properly.

The 7th Rapid Response Corps of the Air Assault Forces, however, cannot come up with anything better than attempting to retake captured positions through frontal assaults.

Russian tactics:

It looks like this: the faggots lay camouflage thermal-insulating ponchos on the ground, cool them down, and then move in them at night in pairs. Almost every movement between positions is monitored step-by-step: a control officer gives specific instructions, escorts them with a drone, and oversees their concealment. If there is danger, the group lies down and covers itself with the poncho.

We’ll also take a look at the failure of the Corps reform and the impact of the general staff lying about non-existing Ukrainian advances.

But first, the bigger picture.