Donbass disintegrating
Kramatorsk evacuated. Kostiantynivka critical. Lyman, Siversk, Pokrovsk directions.
The killing continues for control of the Donetsk oblast. Whatever value this plot of mined, de-industrialized steppe has, seizing control of what remains seems to animate the minds of many. Recently, the western press ran a story claiming that Zelensky has been refusing the Russian-US offer, according to which Kyiv would give up the last 10% of the Donetsk oblast it controls in exchange for a ceasefire.
Whether that offer exists or not, the question remains — how goes the war in this most important of theaters?
We examined the chaos of the southern, Zaporizhzhia oblast theater two days ago. Despite western and Ukrainian claims of ‘successful counterattacks’ there, we found simultaneous Russian and Ukrainian attacks in a bloody, highly contested no-mans-land. Following the relative Ukrainian success there of late January/February, March has seen Russia advancing almost everywhere there as well.
As for the Donbass, the story is somewhat simpler. The bulk of Russia’s military resources and efforts are concentrated here. Hence, there has not even been the opportunity for spin-doctors to come up with narratives of ‘successful Ukrainian counterattacks’ here. But while Russian advances have been steady and widespread, nor are they particularly startling. Indeed, March has seen one of the lowest levels of Russian territorial advances for more than a year.
It is somewhat of a fool’s errand to try and minutely count the amount of kilometers lost or gained, due to the growing prevalence of contested territory in this war. The mishmash of Ukrainian and Russian positions, commonplace in the south, is also true of the Donbass.
But perhaps more important than territory is the nature of the fighting. As we will see today, Ukrainian military sources describe almost constant counter-attacks against Russian positions. Given the fact that these counter-attacks have evidently had no success in the Donbass, one can be certain that Ukraine is spending precious manpower in these vain efforts.
First of all, some basics.
Unlike the south, Russian advances in the Donetsk oblast are relatively easily visible on DeepState.
The largest advances took place in the territory to the east of Sloviansk/Kramatorsk, the last two major cities (100-200k prewar population) of the Donbass under Ukrainian control.
The Russians also increased their stranglehold over and infiltration into the town of Kostiantynivka, on the southern flanks of Sloviansk/Kramatorsk.
Finally, the Russians have been slowly moving forward beyond Pokrovsk, in the southern reaches of the Donetsk oblast.
Here’s a comparison of what the Ukrainian semi-independent mapping service DeepState shows changing from March 1 to 26:
Sloviansk/Kramatorsk
Writing on March 23, Ukrainian military analyst Konstantin Mashovets argues that ‘the logic of Russian command’ is to prepare for ‘a large-scale offensive in the summer–autumn of this year against the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration’. Most agree that taking these cities is prioritized by Russian command.
Located less than 15 kilometers from the eastern frontlines, the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration is entering the metamorphosis that so many Ukrainian cities have gone through since 2022.
First logistics are strained by Russian drones controlling surrounding roads. Then FPV drones start destroying targets. Then artillery starts hitting buildings. Then evacuation of children. Then (if not already) Zelensky visits to christen it a ‘fortress city’. Then the city’s infrastructure is slowly erased from the air. All the while, small Russian infantry groups increasingly enter the city to destroy Ukrainian drone operators at intimate distance. Surviving troops entrench wherever possible, and the city increasingly becomes a warzone, with each side destroying buildings opposing troops are sheltering in.
And so on, and so forth, until eventually the Ukrainian army starts reporting on successful ‘counterattacks’ at a town further west, having never even reported on the loss of Kramatorsk to begin with…
Russian FPV drones started hitting Kramatorsk in September 2025. The first Russian artillery strike on the city occurred on February 27. Two weeks later, evacuation began. Eastern Forepost, a Ukrainian military telegram, warned of the fate facing the city on March 17:
Lyman direction
The northwestern flanks of Sloviansk are known as the Lyman direction. The entire green-shaded territory on the map below was taken by Russia in early 2022, but then retaken by Ukraine in its September 2022 counteroffensive. Now, the Russians are once again moving back to their 2022 highpoint — the Siversky Donets river, which marks the border of the green-shaded area.
Not much changed here over the course of March. In February, what did change was that Russian troops advanced south from Yampil to Zakitne.
Speaking on March 26, the chief editor of DeepState stated that Yampil has some remaining Ukrainian presence, but that the defense of the city is in its final days. Instead of bothering with taking the city head-on, Russian troops have opted to simply bypass it, rendering the remaining Ukrainian troops there isolated.
Military analyst Mashovets, writing on March 25, argues that the Russians need to take Lyman in order to properly threaten Kramatorsk/Sloviansk. The Russian army made serious progress in the area over the course of 2025, but is currently stuck on the southeastern outskirts of Lyman. Russian infantry troops intermittently infiltrate the city, but it remains under Ukrainian control. The same is true of the nearby Yampil. Here is how he summarizes his analysis:
As far as I understand, this “large” Russian offensive on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk is clearly not far off; it will likely take place around late spring — early summer, but the Russian Army Grouping “West,” which must TIMELY secure it from the northeastern direction, has in fact not even fully completed all the necessary “preparatory measures,” not so much with regard to Sloviansk, but even regarding the assault on Lyman and its outskirts.
Ukrainian military analyst Bohdan Myroshnykov covered the collapsing defenses to the north of Sloviansk on March 19. In his view, the Ukrainians have already retreated from Yampil:
Lyman direction
Along the Siverskyi Donets, our defense is unfortunately gradually collapsing.
The enemy has captured most of the dominant heights in the areas of Zakitne and Kryva Luka.
This creates a threat to logistics in Lyman, given the range of drones and the ideal conditions for artillery operations (dense forest nearby where equipment can be concealed, and from these same heights—artillery can be effectively adjusted).
This is also gradually leading to a situation where our garrison in the Dibrova area will face serious difficulties, likely resulting in a retreat.
A withdrawal from Dibrova would tighten our defensive lines on the left flank of Lyman.
Earlier, there was already a retreat from Yampil, which the enemy is now capturing for the second time during the full-scale invasion.
After that, they are likely to consolidate in the vast forest area and launch an attack on Lyman from the east.
Siversk direction
Slightly south of Lyman, to the east of Sloviansk, we have the Siversk direction. This is where the most noticeable Russian gains of March have taken place.
