Events in Ukraine: March 1-14. Parliamentary crisis, Rada is sent to the trenches

Zelensky cancels parliament for two weeks, the anti-Zelensky coalition strengthens, public opinion increasingly calls for peace, polls show Zaluzhny easy winner of elections

Welcome to my subscribers to another instalments of events in Ukraine. The idea is to release these news bulletins twice a month. I do it by trawling through all the news on strana.ua, a Ukrainian media site which is probably sponsored by old members of the Yanukovych elite like Sergei Lyovochkin, crafty old grey foxes that have managed to outlast maidan and stay in Ukraine. Strana is critical of Ukraine’s pro-NATO nationalist course, but is also sufficiently critical of Russia for some of its journalists to remain in Ukraine and practice their craft, despite the site being blocked in Ukraine since 2021.

I was also planning to pepper this month’s instalment with some news from Ukrainian Truth, the main western-funded media group which is also quite interesting and critical of Zelensky, but to tell the truth, I didn’t find the time. Going through 350 pages of the strana news events that I selected took enough time. In any case, I am looking forward to publish an article later this week about the Zelensky government’s conflict with Ukrainian Truth and its fellow US-embassy funded anti-corruption warrior friends.

Now, onto the events of the first month of March. Last time I didn’t have many dates, so this time I’m organizing it by dates in a brisker style.

Parliamentary crisis and the ides of May

This section is about the parliamentary crisis which has been brewing regarding the end of Zelensky’s constitutional 5-year term on the 20th of May. I wrote about it in my last instalment of events in Ukraine. This narrative is being pushed by a wide range of oppositional politicians, many of whom are associated with Petro Poroshenko, but not only.

15 February

• According to polls by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, public belief in Zelensky fell by 5% after replacing Zaluzhny with Syrsky. Before February 24 2022, it stood at 37%. Following the Russian intervention in February 2022, it rose to 90%. By December 2023, it had fallen to 77%. At the start of February 2024, it stood at 65%. Now it is 60%. Zaluzhny is trusted by the most Ukrainians - 94%. Kyrylo Budanov, flamboyant spymaster, has 66%. 40% trust in Syrsky and another 21% lack faith in him.

February 29

• Petro Poroshenko officially whined to Oliver Varhelyi, EU commissar on European Expansion about how he and other opposition politicians are are not being allowed out of the country. The former presidents claimed the rights of opposition are being trampled on in Ukraine. Varhelyi approvingly tweeted about it.

  

1 March

• Zelensky begins the process of choosing judges of the Constitutional Court. Only the Constitutional Court can give a real answer about Zelensky’s legitimacy after May 20, but the problem is that many of the judges were chosen under Poroshenko. Zelensky has already had many highly dramatic conflicts with the Constitutional Court, which were covered widely in the western press.

4 March

• Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal wants to reduce the number of ministers by a quarter. On 19 December 2023 Strana came out with an article about how Zelensky doesn’t want to close the parliament or conduct elections, but would rather reduce the size of the government. This was based on an answer he gave during a press-conference to Ukrainian Truth to (recently arrested in Poland) journalist Mykhalo Tkach. In the same press-conference, when asked by a ‘Weekly Mirror’ journalist about the struggle with political corruption, he ended up arguing for 10 minutes, during which he also stated his desire to ‘reduce the size of the government’. On February 19, Strana also came out with an article about rumors that Andrii Yermak, much-reviled grey cardinal and trusted head of the presidential administration, could be made Prime Minister to exit the parliamentary crisis.

• Strana reports that Servant of the People (SotP) deputies want to lay down their parliamentary mandates, but are being blocked by the party leadership. On 26 January David Arakhamiya, head of the party, was complaining about this problem. On 11 December 2023 Arakhamiya also complained about this on TV. There are currently 400 People’s Deputies left in the Rada. On December 8, Maxym Efimov from (Igor Kolomoisky-financed) party ‘Rebirth of Ukraine’, and the non-affiliated deputies Dmitro Spenov and Vitaly Danylov from ‘Fatherland’ laid down their parliamentary mandates.

• On 27 January, Arakhamiya said that 17 deputies wanted to lay down their mandates. He claimed that the situation is the same in other parties and that the situation is worse than before the war. On 4 March, Strana’s informant in the SP says 20 deputies want to abandon their posts. He claims that there are more and more, but they aren’t allowed. According to the informant, the situation is worse than January 2022. Quote: ‘there is some kind of constant chaos in our fraction, everyone does what he wants, says what he thinks, and the leadership has totally forgotten about it all, they don’t find our opinion on any question interesting. They just ask us to press the green button and that’s it. Everyone’s damn tired of it. We don’t know what the plans of the leadership are regarding the current situation in the nation and on the front. The current feeling is one of turmoil and hopelessness. They don’t let us leave, so we all have a suitcase mood.’

• Ex-people’s deputy Valery Karpunov in conversation with ex-people’s deputy Ihor Mosiychuk stated that the 103rd clause of the Ukrainian constitution forbids a term longer than 5 years.

  • Karpunov: ‘Otherwise any president can created conditions that allow him not to conduct elections and rule for 5-7-10 years, referring to the 108th [law of Ukraine’s general legislation. This defines presidential powers as being preserved until the appearance of a new state leader, which pro-Zelensky forces refer to in order to justify his post-May legitimacy]. Where is the common sense?’

  • Karpunov says that Zelensky should just name his own prime minister to become state leader through the rada, which wouldn’t be hard given how he controls parliamentarians. There were rumours about yermak becoming PM and taking control of the state with Zelenskys permission in February.

5 March

• Kiev mayor Klitschko says in interview to Italian newspaper La Repubblica that ‘Zelensky should have explained the reason behind his decision, which shocked every Ukrainian… many people felt confusion and desperation… Expelling general Zaluzhny was a very serious mistake. Now we need a government of national unity, to regroup…. Not a single peace plan will work unless the frontline holds. We can realize that only if we will be strong, and the Russians will respect that.’

  • I would add that there has long been speculation that the Klitschko brothers, light-headed heavyweights of Ukrainian politics, plan to make up their differences with Petro Poroshenko (despite unity during the 2014 Euromaidan, they started bickering soon after coming to power) in creating an anti-Zelensky coalition.

• A survey is released claiming that Zaluzhny would win presidential elections. According to the poll, he would win in the second round with 67.5% against Zelenskys 32.5%

6 March - SHOCKING EVENT IN UKRAINE

• Meetings of the Parliament cancelled, Arakhamiya states that deputies have been sent to the front ‘for a very important mission upon which aid from our partners relies. When this task has been complete they [the Deputies] will return to work in the session hall’. There is speculation that they are being called upon to gather material for ‘a complex report for the US senate’ regarding the situation on the frontline, defense constructions, and other topics. The opposition claims that the move is a way to get rid of obstacles in the path of the president’s will.

• People’s Deputy from Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party, Oleksiy Goncharenko, claims that this remarkable event has taken place because Zelensky wasn’t getting enough votes for laws he wanted to push through.

• Strana argues that People’s Deputies both within Zelensky’s party and outside, frustrated with Zelensky and his rule for various reasons (the former because of how little he consults with them regarding controversial laws, the latter for his repression of oppositional political activity, for instance his putative ban on Poroshenko from leaving the country), have been conducting an ‘Italian strike’ by refusing to vote.

• Furthermore, by rattling off an ever-increasing amount of proposed modifications to the crucial mobilization law (it is now over 4000), the government is in deadlock, unable to push through needed legislation. According to Goncharenko, ‘not only our party, but a whole set of parliamentary fractions have decided to put every single proposed modification to a vote. And at this point, the leadership of the parliament decided to simply cancel it all’. This deadlock angers both soldiers, who demand a solution to the manpower problem, and civilians, who oppose the law whether it is proposed or implemented.

• According to a strana informant inside the Servant of the People, the Poroshenko opposition has demonstrated that it can slow down the legislating process to a halt. Furthermore, the Poroshenkites are supported by the influential Dmytro Razumkov, former speaker of the Parliament and ex-Servant.

• Ukraine’s Central Election Commission announces that Zelensky is legitimate until the election of a new president, which can only take place after martial law ends.

  • However, it should be noted that only Ukraine’s electoral codex forbids the conduction of elections in wartime, not the constitution. However, the constitution does speak of a maximum 5-year presidential term. This is the opposition’s argument.

7 March

• Zelensky announced that General Zaluzhny has been appointed Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK.

• Poroshenko and co are angry about Zaluzhny being sent to Sunny Albion. People’s Deputy Volodymyr Ariev of Poroshenko’s party European Solidarity (ES) calls it ‘political competition’.

• There is also plenty of confusion about the procedure. Zaluzhny was named ambassador without prior British agreement, which should be the usual diplomatic procedure.

  • Ex-deputy head of the Central Election Commission, Andriy Magera, criticized this break from procedure. Some experts like Ruslan Bortnyk say that Zaluzhny’s new job is probably good for his political future. This is because it renders impossible Zaluzhny’s likely fate where he to stay in Ukraine - Zelensky would try accuse him of corruption charges. Kost’ Bondarenko compared it to the island exile of Napoleon - both were popular among the troops.

• It shouldn’t be forgotten that this happened only several days after the polls came out showing Zaluzhny would win an election against Zelensky.

11 March

• The Rada has been cancelled for another week. Servant of the People still doesn’t have enough votes to carry through its laws.

• Yaroslav Zheleznyak, people’s deputy from the pro-western ‘Voice/Holos’ party, posts about this new development on his telegram: ‘Honestly, it is hard to surprise me with anything from the [Servant of the People] coalition after 4.5 years working in the Rada. But today it happened - with the new plans to cancel yet another plenary week.’

• Poroshenko’s deputies from European Solidarity seem to have gotten used to life at the frontline, and a photo of them posing in helmets went viral on Ukrainian social media. Though, it must be said, perhaps not with the unironic approval its authors intended

  

  14 March

• Goncharenko calls the situation a ‘deep parliamentary crisis’. Notes that the March 14 Rada session was the first in three weeks, only lasting for two hours, including a suspicious air alert. The only vote taken was regarding non-recognition of the Russian elections, hardly a big step forward.

Public opinion on peace and war

Fiery discussion around matters of language and ethnicity continue as usual in Ukrainian society. Khrystyna Soloviy made headlines when she stated in early March that Russian-speakers have blood on their hands. By March 7, she corrected that by clarifying she only meant Russian-speakers in the media, not all Russian-speakers.