Fibre-optics vs vampires: telegram war roundup

Casualty speculations. Kurakhove, Velyka Novosylka. Andriivka, Novopavlivka. Organization reforms, Azov given too much responsibility. Drone wars - fibre optics and hexacopters.

Time for a roundup of what our Ukrainian military experts have been saying on telegram. Today’s agenda:

• Numbers: how much territory was lost in January, and interesting speculations on the true number of Ukrainian losses and mobilization figures

• Soldiers vs society: complaints that Ukrainians in areas controlled by Russia aren’t resisting against mobilization the way that Ukrainians are doing so against Ukrainian mobilization. Other tirades against civilians and pro-Russian civilians at the frontlines

• Analysis of the Kurakhove and Velyka Novosylka frontlines

• Recent organizational reforms at first greeted positively among Ukrainian analysts. But then, negative attention was drawn to the fact that Azov’s 3rd Assault Brigade, generally considered among the most effective fighting units, has been assigned far more frontline territory than it can feasibly control.

• Drone wars: ongoing Russian superiority in the field of fibre-optic drones. Russia develops its analogue of the Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone. Problems with new Ukrainian state codified drones.

• Financial limitations: how new limits of bank transfers in Ukraine (demanded by the IMF) have led to major difficulties for frontline units in receiving military gear (which is often crowdfunded).

Numbers

Deepstate, February 1:

In January, the enemy occupied 325 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.

The enemy continues to conduct active offensive operations across multiple sectors, but almost everywhere, their advance is being slowed down. Most of the significant gains made by the enemy result from our own mistakes, which keep repeating.

Buniatov, January 29:

It's sad to admit, but volunteers born in 2007 are already joining the army.

Frontline journalist Volodymyr Boiko on Zelensky, February 5:

Boiko

One of the Greatest Leaders of the World (c) is a happy man. Due to the peculiarities of his intrauterine development, he does not comprehend what exactly he reads from the teleprompters every evening for the delight of his subjects. Even more so, the Greatest (c) cannot grasp the meaning of what he tells foreign journalists according to pre-prepared texts. Because if the Greatest (c) ever realized what he was actually spouting on television, he would be horrified.

For example, in an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan, One of the Greatest Leaders of the World (c) stated that the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in terms of fatalities over nearly three years of war amounted to 45,100 people.

Let’s take the Greatest (c) at his word—most likely, this number is taken from the briefing document on which his speech was based. However, in Ukraine, only those servicemen whose deaths are officially registered in civil registry offices based on a medical death certificate or a court ruling are considered deceased. In other words, as of early February 2025, the figure of 45,100 refers only to those whose bodies were successfully evacuated, delivered to forensic bureaus, and identified. The rest—the majority of the dead, whose bodies could not be retrieved—are classified as missing in action. For three years, they will remain on the personnel lists of their military units, and their relatives will continue to receive financial support and additional compensation of at least 125,000 UAH per month.

The number of those killed whose bodies could not be evacuated can be estimated based on the total number of individuals recorded in the Unified Register of Persons Missing Under Special Circumstances—63,000. Of course, some of these are civilians, and some are captured military personnel whose imprisonment has not yet been confirmed. However, it is quite reasonable to assume that the remains of 55,000–60,000 servicemen were left behind on the battlefield.

There’s another nuance. When the Greatest (c) cites the figure of 45,100, he emphasizes that this number represents the fatalities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine alone. But there are also other military formations within the Defense Forces, such as the National Guard, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, the Security Service of Ukraine, the State Border Guard Service, and others.

Thus, the total number of fallen servicemen can be estimated at 105,000.

Furthermore, according to the Greatest (c), in December 2024, there were 370,000 wounded, and by early February, that number had risen to 390,000. Again, it is unclear what category of wounded he refers to—those who, due to injuries, concussions, or combat trauma, have been deemed unfit for further military service, or those who were hospitalized for the same reasons but are likely to return to their units after treatment? It seems to me that the Greatest (c) meant the first category—those who are permanently unfit for service. If that’s the case, the irreversible monthly losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine alone amount to 13,000 people.

At the same time, it has been repeatedly reported that Ukraine mobilizes (mostly forcibly) 15,000–20,000 conscripts per month. Yet even this number is insufficient to compensate for personnel losses, making the situation at the front simply catastrophic. This raises the question: where are the rest? The answer is quite simple—they are deserters and shabulants (EIU - by this he means those who fictitiously serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Boiko uses such a term to make fun of the name of the head of the Anti-Corruption Center, Vitaliy Shabunin, who became a suspect in a criminal case for evading military service. See this article of mine on the patriotic Shabunin’s draft-dodging).

The total number of deserters is estimated at 200,000—these are servicemen who have abandoned their military units to evade service. Meanwhile, the number of shabulants is no less than 50,000—soldiers who manage to avoid military duties through collusion with their commanders.

Now, the most important thing is to make sure that One of the Greatest Leaders of the World (c) never learns about these calculations—such information might upset him.