Invisible advances

Maps and reality. Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia fronts.

As usual, all attention has been seized by Ukraine’s dramatic attacks on Moscow. This has been aggravated by the fact that Russians face no real consequences for filming the results of enemy airstrikes, in stark contrast to Ukraine, Israel, or the Gulf States, where such activities are regularly punished with prison terms. I’ve seen some speculation that True Russian Patriots™ in the elite have been encouraging the publishing of such videos in order to discredit the conservative leadership and create hysterical conditions ideal for declaring full mobilization and blah blah blah.

Meanwhile, things might be more interesting on the actual frontlines. Here, despite all the Ukrainian claims that their mid-range drone strikes are crippling Russian logistics, the opposite is happening.

There have been a number of important events over the past week. On all the fronts, a particularly interesting trend is the dissonance between Ukrainian semi-official maps from DeepState and those put out by actual Ukrainian soldiers like that running the telegram channel Muchnoy Jugend. Russian advances seem to be increasingly neglected by the mappers, despite what’s happening on the ground.

First of all, Russian troops unexpectedly advanced in two sections of the Kharkiv oblast — around Vovchansk in the north (A), and around Kupyansk in the east (B). The situation around Kupyansk has become particularly bad, with Ukrainian military experts worrying that they may have to abandon the area after all, despite all the euphoria of retaking it back in late 2025.

In the Donetsk oblast, the Russians have advanced in all sections of the front. The battle has been edging towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the last cities of the Donbass. To their northeast, Russian infantry infiltrations into Lyman (C) have significantly increased, with large parts of the city now under Russian control. Russian troops continue probing forward around Mykolaivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka (D).

Meanwhile, remaining Ukrainian positions in Kostiantynivka (E) are largely surrounded. The Russians seem to have taken control of the city’s strategically crucial chemical plant over the past few days, and are now present throughout the city centre. The battle is now raging for the Druzhkivka-Kostiantynivka supply line. Druzhkivka is under intense air pressure, the last city before Kramatorsk.

Around Pokrovsk (F), Russian troops have also moved forward in Rodynske. The pressure on Dobropillia is further increasing. Given its importance for resupplying Druzhkivka/Kramatorsk, the pressure on the area also has negative results for the rest of the Donbass.

Meanwhile to the south (G), in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnepropetrovsk oblasts, largely inconsequential battles over control of the gray zone in farmland continue. The bloody Ukrainian counterattacks of early 2026 no longer enjoy much success, although, of course, the effort continues.

I’ll begin by taking a look at the broader outlook for key hotspots from some Ukrainian analysts, and then move onto a much more detailed day-by-day analysis of all areas of the front from June 13-19.