It’s been more than a week since the fall of Andriy Yermak, the man who has micro-managed all affairs in the country for the past few years. So what has changed since the ‘Black Friday’ law enforcement raids on Yermak? Can Ukraine survive without him at the wheel?
Yermak was raided by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) on November 28, and resigned the same day.
Politics seems to have entered a limbo state. After years of demonizing and inflating the powers of Andriy Yermak, all it took was a visit from a law enforcement agency for him to leave. But now what?
Perhaps the most potent sign of this limbo state is the following very important absence: the lack of official corruption charges laid against Yermak by the NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine).
Yermak was raided as part of the NABU’s larger ‘Operation Midas’ against corrupt individuals in Zelensky’s entourage. This operation went public in November 10, with raids against Timur Mindich and a number of other individuals. Mindich and a number of others received official charges almost immediately. However, some of the key conspirators, like former energy minister Hrynchuk and former justice minister Halushchenko, also still haven’t received suspicions.
Yermak
So where are the charges against Yermak? This question was already being raised by the pro-NABU, anti-Yermak media in the days following the November 28 raid on his residence. Now, it is being raised with more urgency.
The only real effect of November 28 was that Yermak left his position as head of the presidential administration. Hitherto pro-NABU media are now asking the quite germane question — was the NABU just participating in a political intrigue to get rid of Yermak to benefit of his competitors? What about the struggle against corruption?
The uneasy deadlock continues. But one has the feeling that a number of grandiose events are about to burst onto the scene.
Particularly piquant was the November 5 news that imprisoned oligarch Igor Kolomoisky has invited ‘all citizens, journalists, and members of the public’ to his trial next week. His lawyer stated that Kolomoisky ‘is ready to answer questions from anyone who attends.’ I am most excited to hear what Ukraine’s most colorful man has to say.
Kolomoisky has utterly nuclear amounts of kompromat on every figure in Ukraine’s political establishment, especially his decades-old employee Zelensky
Visions of Yermak
First, the facts on what Yermak is up to.
On November 5, Dzerkalo Tyzhnya reported that Yermak had apparently visited today the central office of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) of Ukraine at 5:00pm. Either in the interests of safety or the desire to preserve official airs, he arrived in a black armored Mercedes S-class:
he stayed there for 45 minutes, and after Yermak left, the head of the SZRU, Oleg Ivashchenko, summoned the head of the department that deals with cover-up documents. According to sources, Ivashchenko is considered “one hundred percent Yermak’s man” and, according to the same sources, owes his appointment to him.
Sources suggest that cover documents may be being prepared for a possible border crossing.
Ivashchenko
The publication tied this to the likelihood that the NABU will continue prosecuting Yermak. But as we will see later on, Yermak may have other reasons to worry.
In any case, Zelensky clearly hopes that Yermak’s dismissal will dismiss the various concerns society has about him. MP Mariana Bezuhla has made a rather transparent ‘about-face’. Until July of this year, she had the ‘bravery’ to constantly defend Yermak publicly. Then the past two months or so, she went even ‘braver’, calling to get rid of Yermak. Now that Yermak is gone, she has gone one step further — time to calm down and get back to work instead of calling for more radical change.
In fact, the situation remains entirely unsettled. There is still no successor to Yermak to take charge of the presidential administration. On the 4th, Zelensky again announced, even promised, that he would soon conclude the matter. The reality is probably that Zelensky is under too much pressure from conflicting interests to be able to appoint anyone.
Mendel’s revelations
Some more interesting information on Yermak has also appeared.
Zelensky’s ever-colorful former press secretary Julia Mendel made a December 3 appearance on Radio Svoboda to give some insights about Yermak.
Voice trembling, she even informed the interviewer that she feared for her life every day due to her criticism of Yermak. When asked what she feared, she responded carefully with ‘politically motivated prosecution’.
Mendel was quite the character, pictured here in 2019
There were a few interesting tidbits in her long monologue about Yermak. To begin with, he apparently visited an American political consultant in 2019 with the question ‘of how to become president. This was when he was a mere presidential aide. Mendel claimed he always had massive ambitions.
Mendel also brought up the old spectre, beloved by western media, that Yermak is a Russian agent. He apparently systematically downplayed the threat of a Russian invasion to Zelensky, thereby sabotaging better preparation. I’d also add that this would have had the effect of dissuading Zelensky from taking Russian political demands seriously (the Minsk agreements). This is something that Russia’s enemies in London and Washington were quite interested in.
Finally, Mendel confirms Yermak’s conspiratorial mindset. In 2020-21, the British (spooked-up) media publication Bellingcat pushed the line that Yermak had sabotaged a fantabulous special operation against Russia, with the anti-Zelensky opposition in Ukraine reading this as more confirmation of Yermak being a Kremlin agent. Mendel claims that she saw in person how Yermak wildly shouted and gesticulated to Zelensky that Bellingcat had been bought out (presumably by Moscow), apparently in nowhere other than Armenia.
A shape of things to come
Political games are one thing. But political power grows out of the barrel of a gun. And without strong central power in Kiev, tensions between Ukraine’s motley zoo of armed groups are spilling into the open.
The most dramatic sign of the new realities in Ukraine on a patch of expensive real estate on the outskirts of the capital.
On December 3, Ukrainska Pravda announced remarkable news — an armed battle between active servicemen of Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) and the regular army unit A4005. Shots were fired at the Zhovten sanatorium, at the prestigious Koncha-Zaspa area.
Besides the fact that armed force was applied, the stories Ukrainska Pravda gathered vary slightly. Law enforcement sources claimed that GUR fighters entered the sanatorium in the evening and occupied it, ‘breaking down the gate and breaking the fence, firing firearms into the air and the ground, and taking prisoner 10 servicemen of military unit A4005, causing significant injuries.’ They then apparently released the prisoners and barricaded themselves in the building.
The next part of the source’s testimony is rather confusing. Near the building were representatives of the national police, the military police (VSP), the local Military Commandant responsible for unit A4005, and high level officials from the Kyiv military administration. A unit from the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) also came.
But another anonymous source described the scene differently:
The Military Law Enforcement Service (VSP) reported that both sides of the conflict have rights to rent this territory, and no one has submitted any formal requests. The conflict situation is being handled by the VSP Central Directorate.
Well, doesn’t that clear things up!
Even more interestingly, apparently the head of the army (!!) Oleksandr Syrsky had to personally come in order to try and mediate the conflict. When the capos fight, the boss of all bosses needs to make an appearance. I assume he made the GUR fighters an offer they couldn’t refuse.
Syrsky
For their part, the GUR told Ukrainska Pravda that army unit A4005 had illegally occupied a building which belonged to them. They even made what is hard not to interpret as a threat:
Our servicemembers are present here on lawful grounds.
Any disclosure of information about the locations of security and defense forces poses a direct threat to the lives of the personnel of the units.
So why are different branches of Ukraine’s armed forces (A4005 is part of the army, and the GUR is part of the ministry of defense) engaged in shootouts over property?
The GUR later told Ukrainska Pravda out that the plot of land in question is owned by ‘a company from the orbit of businessmen Boris Kaufman and Oleksandr Granovsky’. The GUR apparently had an agreement with Kaufman and Granovsky to use the sanatorium.
Kaufman has been a fixture of Ukraine’s tycoon class for decades
However, military unit A4005 began using it after 2022, entering into an agreement with the director of the sanatorium. They are also supported in this by the regional military administration. As a result, the GUR came to the territory several times the past month, demanding they leave.
Naturally, enviable sums of money are at stake. The sanatorium was first seized by a court in 2022, and returned to state ownership by the State Bureau of Investigation in 2022. Managed by the Assets Tracing and Management Agency (ARMA), the asset was valued at 60 million hryvnia.
However, no attempt was made to find a new manager. And in 2022, the country’s largest energy company, DTEK, initiated a bankruptsy procedure on the sanatorium due to a 5 million hryvnia debt. This allows movable property on its balance sheet to be given to creditors to repay the debt. And at the same time, part of the land plot the sanatorium was located on became the property of a company linked to influential businessman Boris Kaufman. A typically Ukrainian procedure.
There are many forces that wish Ukrainska Pravda had stayed away from this story. Over the past few days, influential voices including MPs and the former aide to the minister of defense attacked Ukrainska Pravda for exposing soldiers and GUR fighters to a Russian military strike by their coverage.
Indeed, what use is it to pay attention when the army and military intelligence engage in shootouts and hostage-taking?
Other social media users said something else. Locals complained on facebook that soldiers had occupied the area for some time:
So they’ve been sitting here with us for a year... They closed off the resort beach to people, and all the summer residents were outraged about it.
Besides the inconvenience, they worry that the military occupation of the sanatorium is placing locals at risk of become collateral damage in a Russian strike.
Budgetary battles
While things are highly turbulent on the outskirts of Kyiv, Zelensky is desperately trying to maintain the appearance things are under control in parliament.
On December 3, the 2026 budget was successfully voted through parliament. This is somewhat important, since the past few weeks doubts have been voiced that the embattled Zelensky would be able to muster to troops in parliament to support his initiatives.
But he managed to. In a post on the topic, he made it very clear that he hoped his western sponsors would interpret this as a sign that it was too early to write him off:
Ukraine’s liberal nationalist parties (Poroshenko’s ‘European Solidarity’, Tymoshenko’s ‘Fatherland’, and Holos) all boycotted the vote. They have been boycotting all votes the past week until cabinet is fully reformatted and a ‘government of national unity’ is created.
The coalition of votes supporting Zelensky’s ‘Servant of the People’ party is quite telling. Undermotivated, only 193 ‘Servants’ decided to come to parliament and vote — 226 votes are needed to pass a law. The bill was passed due to votes from the ‘pro-Russian’ MPs that were once in Viktor Medvedchuk’s ‘Opposition Platform For Life’ party (banned after 2022 as a Russian fifth column). These supposedly treasonous MPs have become extremely important to Zelensky in passing wartime laws, as I wrote here. MPs from parties formerly considered close to imprisoned oligarch Igor Kolomoisky also voted for the budget.
Medvedchuk during his April 2022 arrest on treason charges. He is now in Russia.
Opposition parties had other reasons to hate the budget. Yaroslav Zheleznyak is an MP from the Holos party who often writes on financial matters (he sees himself as the IMF’s strongest soldier).
He, like others, were angry about increased ‘populist’ spending. This includes road construction, 4 billion hyrvnia for ‘strategic communication’ (read: propaganda), and the state-run telemarathon (read: propaganda).
Particularly ridiculed is Zelensky’s infamous 1000 hryvnia — the paltry sum (around $23 USD) is being distributed to every citizen of Ukraine for… reasons. Many see it as an attempt to cling onto the loyalties of the population before possible post-war elections. Zelensky’s 1000 will be paid for by reducing spending on social benefits to children and the poor.
Zheleznyak pointed out these other issues with the budget:
▪️ In the 2026 Budget, a deficit of 300 billion hryvnia is planned for the army (even compared to this year)
▪️ In the 2026 Budget, a deficit of 180 million hryvnia is planned for military salaries at 180 billion (even compared to this year)
▪️ A total deficit of $19 billion USD is planned, and there is absolutely no answer yet on who will cover it.
Mr Zheleznyak
Indeed, the Europeans are highly unenthusiastic to help out. On December 2, the European Central back refused to backstop a $162 billion USD payment to Ukraine. So much for the ‘reparations loan’ on the frozen Russian assets.
There has been much in the press lately about Europe’s increasingly explicit unwillingness to send Ukraine the seized Russian assets held by Belgium, valued at around $200 billion USD. On December 3, the Belgian foreign minister excluded the possibility of sending the seized assets to Ukraine. Without its status as a financial entrepot, what will Europe have left! Sandwiches and pensioners?
But it is precisely the seized Russian assets that the Ukrainians are banking on. In a December 4 interview, the oddly serene Servant of the People MP Oleksandr Kornienko told journalists that his party was hoping that the seized Russian assets would cover the gaping hole in the budget. Kornienko is first deputy to the head of parliament.
As you can see, the December 3 ‘success’ in passing the budget was merely a PR victory. The real budget will likely bear little resemblance to whatever was passed, unless a miracle occurs.
Apart from being unrealistic and featuring unnecessary spending, the budget had a more darkly controversial aspect. While parliamentary salaries were increased, military salaries remained low.
Indeed, the 2026 budget has increased MP salaries by three times, rising to 200 thousand hryvnia monthly — almost $5,000 USD. One MP called this an ‘anti-corruption measure’.
Meanwhile, military salaries remain unchanged — the minimum wage for soldiers is still 21,000 hryvnia, a tiny sum. Mykola Kusch, a prominent fighter from Azov known as ‘Frost’, wrote this on December 6:
You fucking damned saboteurs.
Our country still exists not thanks to you, but in spite of you. It’s holding on because of the people for whom you have a ‘budget deficit,’ the people for whom you’ve even stopped paying that fucking hundred.
Over the years of war, combat pay has dropped from $4,000 to about $2,300 [due to inflation - EIU]. And to receive this money, you have to sit 30 days in the infantry. And if you’re a reconnaissance guy — you may have one task a month lasting 2–5 days, but the result is strategically important. So what, pay ‘for 5 days’? Are you out of your fucking minds?
Why does a soldier have to scrape by? Why does a soldier have to live on a miserable handout while being completely unsupported?
Take a look at the photo. How much of that do you think comes from the state? Answer: noth–ing.
Even the rifle — from partners. So: “fight and also buy everything yourself,” as if we’re not in a full-scale war but some extreme airsoft club.
We laugh at the orcs storming on motorcycles they bought with their own money, but how are we fundamentally different? That they are slaves of an empire, and we — we are hostages of your fucking idiocy and negligence? How are you motivating people to move up the military career ladder? Patriotism and personal enthusiasm? And how long is a person supposed to grind like that? Two years? Three? And then what? Watch how all our work is fucked up because of you incompetent morons? And then, burned out and exhausted, you come home on leave and can’t even give yourself and your family a normal rest to recover.
— Buy it yourself. — Prepare yourself. — Fight yourself. Meanwhile you will:
• lay new asphalt in Kyiv • allocate budgets for occupied territories • put flowerbeds in frontline cities • hand out nice salaries to members of supervisory boards whose function is unclear • shake a few kickbacks
And then you’ll still whine that “salaries are low.”
And this is even though, according to international data, 80% of frontline supplies are NOT from the state, but from volunteers or private sources. So you don’t even support the army — but you go mute when it comes time to explain yourselves.
Russia pays its soldiers more — and that’s a fact you avoid, but you yourselves have created it.
You’ve also turned international politics into a circus. If I were the US or the EU, I’d also be reluctant as hell to help people who strip their own army, save money on the front, and hand out bonuses to their cronies.
How is it that our Norwegian instructors have the same salary we get for two quarters — and that’s me calculating with 30 days of combat pay?
You worry about the “image of the MP,” his reputation, PR, comfort, business. But the image of a seasoned fighter who’s ready to go work for a Mexican cartel or in Africa just to earn enough to live — you don’t give a shit.
And the ones who stay break their psyches, drink themselves numb, lose their families — and then get called “crazy war vets.”
Why should I, a soldier with eight years of service, have to think about side gigs just to fill up my car and provide the bare minimum for my family? And that’s still lucky, because people help with repairs for the work vehicle.
Looking for someone to blame? And who the fuck should we blame? It’s you who built and maintain this rotten system.
The reference to working for a Mexican cartel or an African PMC is of course tantalizing. After the war in Ukraine ends (if ever), the world will get a great deal more exciting.
A London-Washington shadow war?
The situation in the Rada is indicative of much more important processes. War and peace, London and Washington.
Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Events in Ukraine.
