Long-range airwar
Is Russia really suffering?
Now, a look at Russian and Ukrainian long-range strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure. We’ll find that claims of declining Russian fuel refining are inaccurate, with the number of Ukrainian strikes flat-lining and even declining since 2026, and only the range increasing. Meanwhile, the Russians are repairing their energy infrastructure increasingly quickly.
Ukraine
Russia times its strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector for the winter, since that is the peak period for energy consumption. However, there are still constant strikes on various infrastructure facilities. Of course, there’s no need to wait for any estimates of the damages from Ukraine’s government any time soon.
I recently wrote in detail about the economic costs of Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure. On May 29, Russian Geran-2 drones hit a cargo ship en route from the Odessa region to Turkey. The crew was evacuated, with two injured.
On May 28, three kilometers off the coast of Kilos, Turkey, Ukrainian Magura sea drones attacked three ships of the Russian shadow fleet. Two attacked one tanker without detonating, with one stuck in the stern area (shown below). The third drone hit the second ship. And the fourth drone hit a third ship, with the crew safely evacuated.
In any case, Ukraine’s energy system is still definitely feeling the heat.
On May 29, Ukraine’s state oil company Naftogaz announced ‘serious damage’ after a number of Russian attacks:
Oil and gas infrastructure in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions came under attack. At one facility in the Sumy region, the enemy carried out a second strike several hours after the first.
We have sustained significant damage. Fires broke out.
The enemy is attacking oil and gas infrastructure almost continuously in the Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The situation remains difficult.
On May 30, Ukrainian telegrams telegrams posted footage of the aftermath of Geran-2 drone strikes on energy infrastructure in the western Rivne oblast.
On May 28, Zelensky published a letter to president Trump proclaiming that Ukraine is running out of Patriot missiles to strike down Russian missiles, and asking for new shipments. A rather strange move, given that I don’t imagine Trump is likely to appreciate such a public demand.
And as a number of Ukrainian military telegrams have pointed out, this is essentially an invitation to Moscow to bomb Ukrainian cities harder, while they’re so defenseless. Some even half-ironically accused him of revealing military secrets.
Russia
The western press has been having obscene amounts of fun with all the dramatic photos of Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Moscow, St Petersburg, and oil refineries. The plumes of smoke almost make for impressive photographs, as this one below from May 15 in Ryazan (which also killed four people and led to oil rain).
But does the economic damage correspond to the emotional affect?
In early April, Forbes claimed that long-range Ukrainian strikes had reduced Russia’s energy exports by 20%.
In late March, they claimed 40%.
However, evidence to the contrary has emerged over the past few days. In fact, Russia’s fuel refining capacity has not been significantly affected, nor have Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia even increased over the course of 2026. Instead, they have slightly decreased compared to last year.
