Mafiosi commanders, expendable troops
Intl volunteers and deserters transferred to the assault forces. Siversk, Myrnograd, Kupiansk.
Today we’re taking a trip to the trenches.
Desperate to convince Washington and the Europeans that not all is lost, no cost is too high if it can lead to globally broadcast ‘victories’. Troops die in the name of a village or part of a town, only for it to be lost the next week.
Though many officers are unhappy, not to speak of the groaning masses of mobilized infantry, Zelensky can count on the small-time goons from organized crime he has put in charge of the army. Such individuals don’t question orders, and they don’t cringe at sending subordinates to their death.
That’s classified
Judging from the numbers, or rather their lack, morale isn’t great.
Statistics on the number of desertions and AWOL are meant to appear at the start of this month. But this December, no figures came out for November. Perhaps unsurprising, given the dramatic record hit by October — over 20,000 in one month.
That’s why on December 10, Ukraine’s General Prosecutor officially confirmed that the statistics for this embarrassing phenomenon have been marked classified for ‘national security’ reasons.
Troops probably have good reason to abandon the frontlines. Western media likes talking about the Russian army’s indifference to wasting human lives, but Ukrainian troops are abandoning their army at a much faster rate.
Some say this is because Russia punishes deserters more harshly. Indeed, given the scale of the phenomenon (more than 200,000 cases of recorded desertion and AWOL in 2025 alone), Ukrainian high command has been unable to use repressive measures. Instead, they have tried to coax them back into the army, constantly extending deadlines for absent troops to return without punishment, or at least the threat of punishment.
One of the main methods for ensuring the return of deserters was by promising that they could choose which unit to return to. This was demanded by many in the army, who pointed out that desertion was often caused by the brutal practices of certain commanders. One officer I translated in a 2024 article told Ukrainian media that 90% of commanders ‘treat their subordinates like animals’, beating them constantly. I’ve covered just how systematic torture and extortion in the army is here.
The hungry dancer
However, the option of choosing a better unit seemed to remain a purely rhetorical show of democratism - as usual in Ukraine. I’ve seen plenty of complaints by soldiers that it was in fact not possible to choose a different unit after returning from desertion/AWOL.
And faced with a collapsing army and imaginary carrots, Ukrainian high command has been experimenting with more use of the stick.
In September, parliament returned the criminalization of desertion. However, it seems that the scale of desertion have made it impossible to implement in practice.
And on December 12th, the army finally put things plainly — those returning from desertion no longer have the choice of which unit to join. “These changes make it inappropriate for soldiers to commit desertion in the hopes of transferring to a chosen military unit.”
Instead, they are to be sent where they are needed most…
That’s right, returnees are to be sent to the assault troops, those very same forces under the commander of Valentin Manko, a man who just a few years ago was being searched for by INTERPOL due to his violent racketeering against frontline civilians.
A man constantly causing scandals in the Ukrainian for his absurd online behavior.
The assault forces constantly criticized for their indifference to human losses, who apparently even shoot soldiers from other units that dare to retreat. The assault forces, whose only task is to retake land to make a good picture for the western press.
Luckily, commander of the assault forces Manko is also quite a good dancer. His tiktok is well worth a follow, though many patriotic Ukrainian were unhappy that the following video was recorded with a vulgar Russian song playing.
Anyway, Manko’s stellar frontline performance (ie, his exceptional willingness to send his troops to their death) means that the assault forces have prioritization for freshly mobilized troops and those returning from desertion. Other commanders are naturally jealous.
In fact, the assault forces are so desperate for troops that Manko has convinced Syrsky to ban ordinary, non-assault brigades from advertising their units to AWOL soldiers returning to service. DeepState, Ukraine’s largest military analysis platform, wrote this on December 11:
On December 12, Deepstate wrote the following complaint to its 800,000 followers:
The instruction to give priority to certain “assault troop” units has nothing to do with fair distribution at a time when brigades are crying out about manpower shortages and losing positions because of it. In practice, a large number of cases have been confirmed where frontline brigades are not being given personnel, even though for many brigades reinforcements from AWOL returnees were precisely the last breath of air in their need for fighters.
The ravenous dancer
Manko’s forces are certainly hungry. Over the past few weeks and especially the past few days, media sources including DeepState, BBC Ukraine and Ukrainska Pravda have reported that the much-feted International Legion was being dissolved by the General Staff.
And where are the hapless foreign fighters to go? You guessed it. The Ukrainian army’s greatest dancer.
Ukrainska Pravda wrote a few days ago that ‘military analysts, volunteers, and the soldiers themselves have told us that units that are fighting and recruiting foreigners are suddenly being liquidated, and the soldiers are being transferred to assault units’. Manko is thought to be the initiator of this reform.
Head of the army Oleksandr Syrsky, thought to be quite fond of Manko, apparently sent a directive to the foreign legions on October 30 about their liquidation by the end of 2025. Journalist Yuliya Kiriyenko wrote today that the controversial assault forces are to be expanded with another unit, hence the need for fresh meat.
The aforementioned BBC article is quite clear why being sent to the assault forces isn’t seen as a reward:
One of the soldiers of the Second International Legion (Ukrainian by nationality) was more frank about the reasons why the unit’s fighters are not eager to join the assault troops.
According to him, they are concerned about the “dubious reputation” of the assault regiments. They are talking about supposedly high losses, the cruel attitude of the command, and the high percentage of the so-called “special contingent” among the assault troops, that is, people who went to the front from places of imprisonment.
“It’s no secret that the assault troops are largely recruited from criminals, people with criminal records... That is, on the one hand, we will have a de facto “penalty battalion”, and on the other - foreigners who came at the call of their own conscience, who understand how unjust this war is and are ready to risk their lives for the sake of Ukraine. These are different people and there should be radically different approaches to them,” he says.
In his opinion, the “tough approach” to personnel, which is practiced in assault units, will absolutely not work with foreigners.
“People will simply be offended, turn around and leave. How is it morally acceptable to put volunteers and criminals on the same level?” - the legion representative is indignant.
The commander of the 475th assault regiment, where a number of international legionnaires have already been sent, responded indignantly to claims of high losses:
“For example, in the last direction where we work, we have a ratio of losses to the enemy of 1 to 38. Other units are shocked by such figures,” Mishchenko noted.
No doubt.
Redditors to the trenches
I was curious what the international legionnaires themselves think about this.
The International Legion has long been somewhat synonymous with reddit.com. On /r/foreignlegion, users have been complaining that the latest move is just another case of the Ukrainians throwing foreign war tourists into the trenches. Of course, one must wonder what exactly they expected:
Another recent question and answer thread from a noted veteran of the foreign legion also displayed some of the usual complaints about murderous incompetence:
It should be noted that the Foreign Legion which has been dissolved is that under the aegis of the Land Forces. There is still a Foreign Legion part of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR). As you can see, the above user recommends joining it instead (dear readers, I do not back him up).
Naturally, it is the Latin Americans who suffer most:
Interestingly, that same poster claims that Azov, particularly ‘the White Fuhrer’ Biletsky’s Third Army Brigade (3AB), is filled with violent racists who send their troops on suicide missions:
Quite the contrast from the usual narrative that the Azov supersoldiers suffer barely any losses, unlike the Russian ‘Soviet-style’ army and other Ukrainian ‘Soviet’ units. But I think it is quite likely. After all, Azov (the 1st National Guard Corps) and Biletsky’s Third Army Corps pride themselves on assault operations and gloriously retaking land. You can’t do that without plenty of death. And anyway, what is the Azov family if not a death cult?
Frontline events
Over the past few weeks, the situation has worsened for Ukrainian troops in the southern Zaporizhzhie oblast (Huliaipole), the southern Donetsk oblast (Pokrovsk), and the northern Donetsk oblast (Lyman). A few days ago, Ukrainian forces claimed to have retaken part of the Kharkiv oblast city of Kupyansk, in the north, which is probably at least partly true.
Russian troops made incremental progress across the frontline. You can see a slideshow comparing December 1, 4, 8, 11, and 14 below:
Over the past two weeks, particular progress has been made around the town of Siversk, towards the cities of Kramatorsk and Slaviansk. These last two are the last major cities of the Donbass not under Russian control.
MP Mariana Bezuhla wrote on December 10 that the town of Siversk had been taken by the Russians, despite Ukrainian official claims to the contrary:
This is a look at the strategic importance of Siversk — beyond it are the last large cities of the Donbass: Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
The General Staff, in contrast, claimed on December 10 that Russian troops were still distant from even the outskirts of Siversk. These are the sorts of highly accurate maps that Manko parades on tiktok — the result is that troops are sent on suicide missions to ‘hold’ positions that were long ago taken by the enemy.
Meanwhile, respected frontline telegrammer ‘Eastern Forepost’ wrote on December 11 that the truth was closer to what Bezuhla said than the General Staff:
And on the 12th, Eastern Forepost wrote that the city was totally lost:
On December 14, frontline soldier Muchnoy Jugend erupted in rage at the whole situation - Siversk, other areas like Myrnohrad, troops returning from AWOL only to be sent to the bloody assault forces:
By December 15, General Staff became at least slightly more realistic about Russian advances, though the center of Siversk apparently ‘still holds’:
Logistics
Russia’s advances have largely been thanks to its progression in drone warfare, allowing it to destroy Ukrainian troops and supply lines tens of kilometers away.
One of the most important routes is that linking Izyum in the Kharkov oblast to Slovyansk in the northern Donetsk oblast. Cut off, Ukraine’s last major stronghold in the Donbass is doomed. The highway is currently less than 20 kilometers from Russian positions around Novoselyvka, well within the range of drones.
On the 15th, journalist Yuliya Kiriyenko wrote of the awful logistical situation on the crucial Izyum-Sloviansk highway:
This is notable, given that on the 14th, military telegrams triumphantly announced that anti-drone nets had finally been erected on the highway. But as Kiriyenko points out today, they aren’t very effective, particularly against Lancet drones, one of the favored weapons in the Russian armory.
Here’s a recent daytime video of the nets covering the Slovyansk-Izyum highway. These nettings, though relatively effective, generally have gaps at certain intersections and other spots allowing drones to enter:
Victory at Kupyansk?
Fighting over the city of Kupyansk has been continuing for much of 2025. Russian troops had taken over most of the city, as shown by this December 11 map from DeepState.
But over the course of the past few weeks, Zelensky kept on repeating that good news was incoming from Kupyansk. And on December 12, DeepState showed that much of the city had been ‘retaken’ from the Russians. It should be noted that much of what was retaken was in fact ‘gray zone’, that is, territory under control of the drones of ‘both sides’.
Let me first note the irony — according to General Staff on December 10, Russian forces weren’t even close to the centre of Pokrovsk! This would mean that Zelensky has been thumping himself on the chest for retaking territory that his own army claims was not lost to begin with!
But that hasn’t stopped the press from having a field day.
So, what has actually been going on in Kupyansk? Did Zelensky really visit the city?
Not only is the battle for the city very far from over, but a fierce struggle has already erupted between different Ukrainian generals and politicians over who is the true father of this ‘victory’. And don’t worry, Manko is involved, along with members of Kharkiv’s world of organized crime, now re-christened by Zelensky as brigadier generals.
