Military newsletter: 'the Werhmacht 1944 Scenario'

A total gray zone, fortification issues, major cities under threat, execution for retreating soldiers, analysis of the Selydove-Kurakhove front, 'the flanking weakness', strategic considerations

To begin with, let’s have a look at a map - this is from DeepState, the Ukrainian-run resource. First, a look at the front as a whole - note the logistically key twin cities of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk in the northern Donbass (the biggest cities in the area still under Ukrainian control), the major cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia on the bottom left, and finally, Kurakhove on the southern part of the Donbass front.

Kurakhove and Selydove

Here’s a closer look at the Pokrovsk direction, which is where most of the action has been taking place in the past several months. The western press has written at length about the strategic importance of Pokrovsk, which this regional salient is clearly reaching towards.

I’ll point out the following. First, that taking Pokrovsk would divide the Ukrainian army between north and south - there would no longer be a highway linking the forces in the south, near Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, with those in the north, around Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and ultimately Kharkiv.