Mobilization events in Ukraine, March 1-14: Ax-wielding Carpathian horsemen versus mobilization officers
IMF-driven tax increases, 21st death of a Ukrainian escapee at the Tysa river, more parliamentary failures in pushing through mobilization, Azov commander condemns 'war for the poor'
Mobilization news
1 March
Investigations have begun into the death of a 49-year old man in Ternopil region with epilepsy who had been taken by the mobilization officers. A video has appeared of the mayor of his small village discussing the matter with a mobilization officer. His wife stated that he had documents to prove his epilepsy but that he was kept in a cell by mobilization officers who did not bother to ask about any medical conditions.
The Rada may pass the mobilization law by the end of march, despite the fact that there are currently over 4000 suggested modifications to the law, mostly regarding restrictions of the rights of draft-dodgers and exemptions from mobilization for various groups. This was stated by member of the parliamentary Defence Committee Fedor Venislavsky. According to him, the law will be passed optimistically, by March 10-15, and pessimistically, by March 20.
Universities will open drone operator specialty courses in professional technical colleges. Schools will also teach children how to control drones.
3 artists - two men and one woman - of the Lviv opera didn’t return to Ukraine after their international tour to Estonia and Finland. At the end of last year there was a big scandal regarding a similar case - the head of Channel 24, Aleksey Pechii, didn;t return to Ukraine after covering the European Security Summit in Brussels. He justified this by saying that the west is changing its relations to Ukraine and that he wants to stay there and make his contribution to ‘the media support of the Ukrainian agenda’. According to strana, almost half of Ukrainian diplomats didn’t return to the country after finishing their stay abroad.
4 March
Prime Minister Shmyhal confirms that people with higher incomes will be exempt from mobilization. The income levels are still being determined.
Minister of Justice Malyuska doesn’t see any violations of constitution in the proposed law about mobilization
5 March
PM Shmyhal invites Ukrainians to come back to Ukraine, offering grants for new businesses. A couple days earlier Zelensky had urged Kharkovites who had fled their city to come home. Shmyhal offers ‘safety and new opportunities for self-realization’.
Border patrol finds the body of an Ivano-Frankivsk man in the Tysa river on the border with Romania. This is the 21st death at this location.
Egor Chernev, deputy head of the Rada’s Defense Committee states that all military age Ukrainians will have to enter their data to local mobilization office 60 days after the passing of new mobilization law. Punishments for draft-dodgers may include a ban on leaving the country, restrictions on transportation, and bank cards and services blocked. The committee didnt support the last idea.
6 March
Border police capture draft-dodgers that tried to swim across the Dniestr to enter Moldova.
Mobilization officers arrest a civilian by turning off the light in his building and grabbing him once he left the house.
The Rada states that it plans to look into the mobilization law in the second half of March
According to a Socis poll, 64.5% of Ukrainians oppose the restrictions on draft-dodgers proposed by the mobilization law
7 March
In the west Ukrainian region of Chernivtsi, mobilization officers threatened fifth-graders with mobilizing their fathers and fining their families so much that ‘you won’t be able to stuff your mouths with food each month’. The scene was observed by the school psychologist and class teacher. Students reported being driven to tears as the mobilization officers threatened to send them to a state boarding school and their parents to prison or the front.
The deputy to the minister of social policy, Darya Marchak stated on television that the government owes 66 billion hryvnias in pension arrears, 67% of which is to military veterans. She called this a ‘Damocles sword’ over the pension system.
Tax increases for business are planned. Currently small/medium business doesnt pay military taxes, the government wants to change that. The current IMF memorandum demands that Ukraine find new sources for ‘mobilization’ for the budget - no less than 0.5% of GDP. This is around 40 billion hryvnias, which is almost precisely the amount (44 billion) that Danil Hetmantsev, the main tax man in the Ukrainian government, announced that the new set of taxes would be able to collect.
Along with various other proposed taxes, this will increase the tax level on small/medium business to 6.5%. By comparison, the level in Romania is 2%. Experts prognose increase shadowification of the economy and even less paid taxes. It should be noted that small and medium business were already setting up protest maidans in the years before the war, especially in 2021 to protest proposed tax increases by Zelensky’s government. These organizations, like saveFOP, still exist and have protested these new propositions. Back in 2021, the stopFOP protest movement was vocally supported by Poroshenko and other rightwingers, though it ended up being overshadowed by the war.
8 March
Ax-wielding villagers in Ploskoe, a village in the Chernivtsi region of the western Carpathians attack mobilization officers on horseback. The two men were brothers. The son of the man in the car was reported as missing in action at the frontline not long before. He reportedly blamed the mobilization officers for the loss of his son. The man on the house fought in the Donbass from 2015 to 2018, where he received a concussion. The horseman remains at large, but the father of the dead son has been arrested. Both are set to receive a 7 year jail sentence.
The Rada decides that increased fines for draft-dodgers are preferable to blocking bank accounts. Egor Chernev, deputy head of the Rada’s Defense Committee, announced this in an interview to ‘Ukrainian News’. He worries that blocking accounts will be bad for the economy. In fact, he says that it has already had negative effects, because people have been taking out money from their accounts even before the law has been approved.
The city of Kiev announces that Kievans will be paid 30 thousand hryvnia to be mobilized into the AFU. This is almost $800 USD.
Corruption-accused Kyrylo Tymoshenko, former deputy head of the Office of the President, has been appointed advisor to the Minister of Defense. His new role apparently specializes in media and communnication advice. Tymoshenko already has 4 corruption charges from the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption. He was previously fired by Zelensky in January 2023. One of the causes for his flight was outrage over the fact that the Chevrolet Tahoe that he drove around in was sent to Ukraine to help evacuate people from the front
In 2023 a record number of 'new businessmen’ were registered - 300 thousand. Getmantsev states in an interview to Ukrinform that he believes this was a way to avoid mobilization. He is the head of the Rada committee on financial questions.
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