Our son of a bitch
Europe bays for blood. The future of Zelensky. Another '12-15 years' of war?
“Somoza may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.”
— President Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1939, supposedly referring to US-aligned dictator of Nicaragua Anastasio Somoza Garcia
How goes things for our son of a bitch in the east?
The past week has been full of dramatic revelations regarding Zelensky’s closest comrades. But what is really behind them?
For those unaware - on November 10, one of Zelensky’s oldest friends and business partners, Timur Myndich, was officially accused of large-scale corruption by Ukraine’s western-funded anti-corruption agencies, the NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine) and SAPO (Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office).
But this is only the tip of the iceberg. Only a few tiny fragments were released — 1,000 hours of wiretapped discussions at Myndich’s residence remain. It remains to be seen if Myndich’s golden bathroom was also recorded.
Even more explosive revelations are to come. Today, the head of the NABU Semen Krivonos stated publicly that his Bureau would investigating ‘certain problems with tracking funds related specifically to defense procurement… . Not all of the members of the criminal organization are identified yet, and we hope to identify them all’.
The game is only beginning. Mindich, a nobody if not for Zelensky’s love of his barbecuing skills, was hardly the organizer of a corruption scheme that skimmed off $100 million from the country’s state energy company.
It was hardly because of Myndich’s non-existent business experience that he became the shadow manager of FirePoint, a drone and missile company created in 2023 which received a third of Ukraine’s defense spending in 2024.
But what are the forces standing behind this show? What are the stakes of this theatre?
First, there’s one thing that isn’t at stake — corruption.
The NABU and SAPO have never given a prison sentence to any influential figure it has accused of corruption. The NABU’s 2019 corruption investigation into incumbent president Petro Poroshenko resulted in just as many shocking revelations as the ongoing Myndich-gate, and just as many prison sentences - NONE.
Nor is it merely a matter of control over government posts. Certainly, Zelensky’s liberal nationalist opposition would rather be sitting in the official positions Zelensky gives to his friends.
It isn’t corruption in question. More important matters are at play — war and peace.
The west, primarily the European Union, are pushing for Zelensky to lower the mobilization age and go all in on the war. The NABU and its corruption probe is merely a means of putting pressure on him to do so.
Today we’ll focus on the two most visible groups struggling for power — the liberal nationalists and Zelensky’s embattled coterie. In the coming days, we’ll take a look at two more powerful yet more mysterious players - the embittered oligarchs and frontline neo-nazis.
Let me first sketch the contours of this battle and the interests involved.
Last week’s revelations by Ukraine’s western-funded anti-corruption organs (the NABU and SAPO) regarding the massive graft of the Mindych network were an obvious blow against Zelensky’s authority.
The aim is to remove Zelensky’s most trusted allies in government - in particular, head of the presidential administration Andriy Yermak and his aide, Oleg Tatarov. It is these two men that have wielded total control over the country since 2021, and especially 2022. The liberals want their people in charge, leaving Zelensky as a powerless figurehead of the state.
The west, as I covered last week, is currently not allowing them to strike directly at Zelensky, fearing that such a regime change could result in chaos benefitting the Russian army. However, if Zelensky continues resisting, direct attacks on him may commence.
Strategically, Zelensky is largely preoccupied with survival. He knows that any peace deal signed now would be horrific — hundreds of thousands dead for nothing. Extremely uncomfortable questions would be asked about wartime corruption and Zelensky’s complacency towards the possibility of war back in late 2021 and early 2022. Finally, having deeply alienated Ukraine’s business-bandit class by imprisoning them or seizing their assets, Zelensky fears that peacetime democracy could cost his life.
Peace isn’t an option, but the war is also going worse than ever. Nevertheless, Zelensky seems hesitant to lower the mobilization age below 25, as increasingly demanded by the western sponsors of Ukraine. The unpopularity of such a move would decimate any remaining goodwill towards Zelensky among the broader population. Ordinary Ukrainian men are quite tired of experiencing what the gentleman in the video below did (November 13, Kharkov):
The liberals, in contrast, have never been particularly popular in Ukraine. They have always disdained most Ukrainians as hopelessly retrograde ‘bydlo’ (cattle). The fact that Ukraine’s liberal parties find it impossible to win more than 5-20% in elections is explained with reference to the ‘soviet mentality’ incapacitating the majority.
People are incapable of understanding why they should be enthusiastic about neoliberal economic reforms whose main result is to aggravate unemployment. And now, people are incapable of mustering the enthusiasm to die in an unwinnable war, as demanded by the liberals.
Correspondingly, Ukraine’s liberals are quite eager to lower the mobilization age and wage war for ‘12 to 15 years more’, as one prominent figure in this community stated a few days ago. The liberals source of power is abroad — they don’t need to worry about domestic discontent. Or so they think, anyway.
Zelensky, in contrast, came to power in 2019 on a wave of popular support to end the war. The west was always suspicious of him for his unpredictable populism, and western media continuously accused him of being a Russian asset throughout the 2019-21 period. Were the war to end and a semblance of democracy to return, Zelensky’s only hope would be to appeal to the masses. The oligarchs that once supported him now hate him, and the west only likes him as long as he continues the war.
Let’s now analyze the struggle in more detail. Things are a great deal more complex than my sketch allows. Perhaps most interestingly of all, Zelensky’s most loyal and loud-mouthed parliamentarian is now calling for Zelensky’s all-powerful consigliere Yermak to resign. According to her, Yermak has been pushing Zelensky to make unpopular decisions. Yermak’s mission — to weaken the president and increase his dependency on his hated advisor.
In other words, Zelensky’s elite may be eating itself alive.
Nevertheless, Zelensky’s total control over Ukrainian law enforcement and (somewhat shakier) grip on parliament still gives him a strong position in the upcoming power struggles. But as the situation at the frontlines worsens and European pressure ramps up, Zelensky will need to respond more forcefully to the ever-multiplying threats surrounding him.
Europe bays for blood
The term ‘liberals’ is rather deceiving, implying as it does some sort of respect for the rights of the individual. In today’s case, our liberals support dramatically increasing the scope of state kidnapping and murder of the broader population.
Just two days ago, for instance, another man was killed in the process of mobilization. Ukraine’s police announced that the body of a 39-year old man had been found in the forest of the western region of Ivano-Frankivsk. The widow of the deceased soon wrote to facebook that he had been mobilized on November 8, after which his phone was taken away. The mobilization authorities claimed that they had let him go on the 10th because ‘he was making a nuisance of himself and not letting the boys sleep’. It is likely that the deceased was unwilling to fight. Such cases are common.
Ukraine’s dear western partners, however, do not think there is enough mobilization.
On November 13, German chancellor Friedrich Mertz criticized Zelensky’s surprise August move to allow men aged 23 to 25 to leave Ukraine:
In a lengthy telephone conversation today, I asked the Ukrainian president to ensure that young men in particular from Ukraine do not come to Germany in large numbers — in increasing numbers — but that they serve their country
Merz also chastised Zelensky for the corruption rampant in his ranks. The connection between the two seems rather clear - Mertz wants Zelensky to work harder on whipping Ukrainian men to the front, otherwise the corruption probe will penetrate deeper. So to speak.
That same day, Zelensky admitted to Bloomberg that the west wants his country to intensify mobilization:
Bloomberg: And there will be renewed discussions about this around manpower and whether or not you need to expand conscription. Is that something you’re looking at? Is it something that you may hear more about from allies, given the retreats you’ve had to make and the need to build up reserves, for example?
Zelensky: But look, the question of people, of course, is the most sensitive and the most difficult — difficult for me, for soldiers, for people, for society, and for partners. Yes.
And of course, we don’t have a really comparable number of people, because you know the size of Russia. Yes. And you know the size of Ukraine. Yes.
But… this is the balance. You can’t. Even if soldiers ask to mobilize more people, you have to balance. It’s a very difficult question — you have to balance, because it is society, people, and they have to work, and they need… they have to work and pay taxes. And then this money goes to the army. So you have to find the balance.
So I react during military cabinets. And of course, soldiers raise this topic, and partners [the western partners - EIU[. Yes. But partners are not at the battlefield. And that’s why, with all respect, with all due respect, I said the decision of our army was to mobilize about 30,000 per month. And the system now is doing this.
Keep in mind that according to official Ukrainian government numbers, there were more than 21,000 cases of desertion and awol in October alone. When you factor in frontline losses, it seems that Zelensky’s very optimistic figure of 30,000 mobilized monthly seems rather grim. I’ve covered other estimates by Ukrainian soldiers and analysts, who claim that much fewer men are mobilized, and many more desert, die, or are wounded.
Kiev mayor Vitaly Klitchko also joined in the chorus on November 12 in a Politico interview. Currently in Germany, he is known for his closeness with European elites. He has also long been at odds with Zelensky, who he was calling ‘dictatorial’ already in 2023.
Like Mertz, Klitschko blamed Zelensky’s decision to open the borders for younger men. He then called to lower the mobilization age from 25 to 22. Clearly, Klitschko isn’t particularly worried about his popularity ratings. Germany will always be there to provide him a warm hearth:
BRUSSELS — Ukraine is facing a worsening shortage of soldiers as record numbers of men flee to Europe, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko warned in an interview.
“We have huge problems with soldiers — with human resources,” Klitschko told the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network
…
Under current rules, Ukrainians can be mobilized from the age of 25. Klitschko suggested that should change.
“In the past, 18-year-olds served in the army — but those are kids,” he said. “Right now you can only be mobilized in Ukraine from age 25. You could lower it by a year or two — to 23 or 22.”
The remarks reflect mounting concern about a growing exodus of young men. A government decree issued in August allowing men aged 18 to 22 to leave the country has coincided with a sharp increase in Ukrainians seeking protection in EU countries.
Recent data shows EU countries granted more than 79,000 new temporary protection decisions to Ukrainians in September — the highest monthly figure in two years — with large increases recorded in Germany and Poland.
Europe’s calls for Zelensky to lower the mobilization age come amidst strife over how the EU is to pay for Kiev’s gaping budget abyss. The corruption infesting Zelensky’s corridors of power has clearly increased their willingness to play hardball.
And instead of harshening mobilization, Zelensky has actually been focusing more on shifting the army towards a Russian-style contract-based system. On November 3, the ministry of defense announced new system of contracts for military personnel ranging from one to five years. These two to five year contracts would include a one-year deferment from mobilization upon completion of the contract.
This is quite the opposite of the total mobilization desired by the west and its Ukrainian puppets.
Ukrainian liberals concur
If there’s anyone more bloodthirsty than European elites, it’s their allies in Ukraine. The glorious ‘liberal opposition’.
