Palace intrigues

The beast without a head. The Shmyhal-Arakhamiya struggle and the parliamentary crisis. The link between frontline problems and political

Last week there was a particularly dramatic reshuffling of the Ukrainian cabinet, with half of all the ministers losing their seats. In the words of Oleksiy Honcharenko, one of the most well-known parliamentarians in former president Poroshenko’s party, the country saw its ‘night of the long knives’.

Trying to figure out what actually happened is somewhat difficult for several reasons. First of all, because plenty weren’t actually sacked, but simply given different positions. Second, because some of the different positions granted are in fact new ministries. Finally, because the process of ‘reshuffling’ still isn’t over, making any descriptions woefully dated.

As the great Russian idiom goes - it’s quite clear that it’s rather murky.

Luckily, western media cut through the political machinations with titles like:

And

The two headlines present the two most obvious purposes of the cabinet changes. First, Zelensky’s usual PR strategy of firing ministers in his role as the incorruptible one. ‘Bad boyars and good tsar’, as summed up by strana.ua. Especially in times worse than ever - unprecedented Russian successes on the eastern front, losses and deadlock in the Kursk operation, and huge military losses in the Poltava rocket attack.

Second, to concentrate power around figures chosen personally by head of the president’s office Andriy Yermak, who is either #1 or #2 in Ukraine’s power vertical, depending how you look at things. Dmytro Kuleba was the biggest name dropped, losing his position as foreign minister. He made the same mistake as infrastructure minister Kubrakov, removed and replaced with Yermakites several months back - he got too close with the west. In the words of journalist Viktor Shlynchak:

After some of our Western partners started inviting Kuleba for private meetings (where there were no extra eyes and ears) following protocol meetings earlier this year, it could have been predicted that the resignation was just weeks away. But no, even months have passed.

Andriy Sibiha, who replaced Kuleba, spent three years before that as Yermak’s assistant in the president’s office. Sibiha’s appointment as assistant to Kuleba back in April was described by one of the BBC’s sources as ‘the appointment of a supervisor by Yermak’. I could go into the details of how the other appointees come from Yermak’s stables, but I’ll spare my readers the enjoyment.

Sibiha’s other claim to fame is his April demand to western countries to supply Ukraine with information about conscription-age Ukrainians abroad, so as to forcibly return them home. Zelensky has always been very worried about the propensity for Ukrainians to escape the country. On August 20, he announced his plan to create a new ministry, the ‘Ministry of Unity’, which is meant to work alongside the Ministry of Foreign affairs.

The purpose of this ministry became clearer on September 6, when it was renamed ‘the Ministry of Return’ (of Ukrainians). Sort of like the Israeli aliyah, except instead of eagerly colonizing a foreign land, the aim here is to forcibly return people to their homeland. Fortunately for Ukrainians abroad, the ministry is yet to find a minister. Like so much of these cabinet reshufflings and ministerial innovations, the point is the image, not the result.

The Arakhamiya-Yermak standoff

There was one main intrigue that went unrealized - the seat of the prime minister. Denis Shmyhal continues his reign as Ukraine’s longest serving prime minister.

Rumors about Yermak’s desire to replace Shmyhal have been circling for months. I stopped writing about them because of how constant they were. And yet again, they haven’t been translated into reality. Ukrainska Pravda, Ukraine’s premier liberal publication, have spent every episode of their weekly politics podcast these past months discussing the intrigues supposedly surrounding Shmyhal. To the extent that much of the time is dedicated to joking about their own very obsession with him.

From left to right: the EU’s Charles Michel, former defense minister Reznikov, and ongoing PM Shmyhal

There is something quite funny about the fixation with this deeply banal and frigid figure. He has managed to hold onto his seat for so long precisely because of his lack of political ambitions, and, in Ukrainska Pravda’s opinion, because there are few other figures in government willing to deal with all the bureaucratic, practical minutiae involved in the position.

But in fact, it is precisely the lack of Shmyhal’s removal that has some significance.

In short, a range of sources suggest that while Yermak has long wished to remove Shmyhal and replace him with his protege, the young Yuliiya Svyrydenko - nicknamed ‘Miss Notepad’ for her propensity to carry around a large notepad - Zelensky’s own party (the Servant of the People, SotP), in particular its leader, David Arakhamia, is protecting Shmyhal. They’ve been working together for a while - I wrote several months ago about Arakhamia and Shmyhal’s joint efforts in trying to whip up enthusiasm among very unenthusiastic parliamentarians.

Parliamentarian and Poroshenko ally (read: western-connected, liberal nationalist opposition to Zelensky) Honcharenko summed it up on telegram back on August 12: