Southern counteroffensive?

Ru/Ukr reactions. Drone war/Starlink updates. Azovites: Russian KIA exaggerated. Telegram blocked?

Have the last few days seen Ukrainian troops cleaving through Russian positions in the strategically important southern front? Last year saw the Russians take vast territory in this flat, under-fortified region. Have the tables turned? Or are these somewhat successful counterattacks merely a sign of Ukraine’s strategic deadend?

The self-proclaimed dogs of NAFO are having a good time on x.com. ‘Maks NAFO Fella’ told his 320 thousand followers this on February 10:

The first thing that should be clear to anyone with a brain is that the arrow was down through a salient of grayzone - territory, according to the Ukrainian map used, which is reliably controlled by neither side.

Naturally, I took a look at the Russian military bloggers (Voenkors). I did find indignation, even hysteria, but it was concerning today’s news that the Russian government is set to block telegram, their favorite platform of communication. The situation in the Zaporizhzhia oblast has been much less worrisome for them.

Anyway, there have indeed been some Ukrainian counterattacks in the southern section of the front (intersection of the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts).

This is quite an important area, but the ~five villages that pro-Ukrainian sources say were gained (or temporarily penetrated) over the past week had pre-war populations of between 13 and 206. The only exception is the town of Ternovate, with a pre-war population of 1460.

As of February 10, Russian military telegrams report Ukrainian counterattacks in the following locations:

Here’s the map they use describing the location of battles, with the names translated. I used Ukraine’s DeepState map, which likely underestimates the extent of Russian control.

And here’s video posted by Russian telegrams of fighting in this area:

So what exactly has been happening in this area? There haven’t been any official Ukrainian statements on it yet. The latest thing coming close to that was a statement shared by Ukrainian military telegrams a few minutes ago. In it, an influential Ukrainian commander claimed that the operation in the Huliaipole/Gulyaypole area continues, but that he cannot disclose details about it:

What is important is his statement that Russian military telegrams haven’t been lying about events here. As we saw, NAFO fellas on x claim that they are having a meltdown over the situation.

In fact, they are not. Of course, they admit that around five villages have been infiltrated by Ukrainian assault forces. But this is how, for instance, Archangel of the Spetznas summarized things there on the 10th to his 1.1 million followers:

Or on February 9:

Ternovate

Let’s begin by taking a look at the most significant contested village. As you can see, it is under 70 kilometers from Zaporizhzhia, a major industrial city with a population of around 700,000.

Ternovate, only just recently taken by the Russians, was apparently fought over by the two armies for 12 days until its February 8/9 loss.

The popular Russian military bloggers Yuri Podolyaka blamed issues with communications following the loss of Starlink, as well as fog that allowed Ukrainian forces to advance. The pro-Wagner telegram Alex Parker Returns had the same diagnosis, with his post on Ternovate directly blaming Putin in a derogatory manner (as usual for the Wagner crowd). Podolyaka claimed that seven Ukrainian assault regiments and three assault brigades had been transferred to the area to do battle with the Russians.

Though they aren’t in tears, Russian military bloggers seem to think what is happening is important. Podolyaka described the events of this area as marking the start of ‘the main battle of the winter campaign, the outcome of which will decide much’.

The level-headed Russian analyst Yury Baranchik wrote about the situation on February 9. He began by noting recent Russian advances in the Donetsk oblast, around Pokrovsk. He then writes:

The actual status of Ternovatoe itself is not entirely clear. Fighting in the flat steppe of the south has always been much more fluid than that in the Donetsk oblasts, which is much more geographically varied and well fortified. Belarusian Silovik wrote this on February 8:

This was his update on the ninth:

Here’s an example of this ‘flag-planting’. Ukrainian military telegrams claimed on February 10 this shows the ‘liberation of the Luhianivske settlement in the Zaporizhzhie region’. The Ukrainian troops here, like their Russian predecessors, are unlikely to be particularly consolidated here:

Zaliznichnoe

As proof of the traditional fluidity of this section of the front, the Russian ministry of defense announced the taking of the village of Zaliznichnoe on February 10. This was done by units of the Vostok (east) troop grouping. It has been engaged in an offensive around Guliaipole for quite some time now, unlike the Ukrainain assault units transferred rapidly here over the past week.

Russian military telegrams emphasize its logistical importance for Orekhiv, a location still under Ukrainian control. If Orekhiv is taken, the massive industrial city of Zaporizhzhie will lose significant depth of defense and come under serious threat.

Here’s how one big Russian military telegram described Zalizhnichnoe’s importance:

Note: DPR means ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’, a part of the front further north from the Zaporizhzhie oblast.

One of the largest Russian military telegrams wrote this about the battle on the 10th:

This advance does not appear to be fake. Ukraine’s DeepOsint resource also wrote on February 10 of Russian advances. It mentioned Ukrainian retreats ‘near Huliaipole’ (probably Zalizhnichnoe) and in the town of Zakitne, which is in the northern Donetsk oblast.

Ukrainian takes

A number of Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts have been cooler about what some Twitter users have been calling ‘the Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive’. They also raise some quite reasonable points about Ukraine’s inability to make any serious advances. This will lead us onto a broader analysis of Ukraine’s strategic woes, nationalist criticism of absurdly overconfident official claims about Russian losses, and a look at the current state of the Ukro-Russian drone war following the Starlink shutoff for the Russians. We’ll finish with the political and military meaning of Russia’s ongoing restriction of telegram.