The collapsing frontline: Fortification special

October 28-November 5 military newsletter. The situation on the Pokrovsk front. Fortification corruption and ineptitude. Russian tactics.

Lots to cover in today’s military newsletter. Here are some highlights:

• Fortifications - Ukrainian journalists explain why it is that theirs have proven so ineffective - it’s because they are built in open fields, and hence cannot actually be used by soldiers.

• Parliamentarian Razumkov on the mechanics of fortification corruption

• The current situation around Kurakhove/Selydove, and the crucial Pokrovsk front generally

• Russian tactics across the frontline

To begin with, a little example of why it’s worth being a bit skeptical whenever it comes to ‘experts’. Julian Roepke is generally considered a relatively fair pro-Ukrainian military analyst, and is often accused of excessive pessimism by pro-Ukrainian westerners (though that doesn’t stop Radio Free Europe’s Ukraine branch from inviting him as an expert on their show).

On October 28, he posted the following on twitter:

In the past three days, the Russian army has captured the Ukrainian settlements of Bohoyavlenka, Katerynivka, Ismailivka, Oleksandropil, Hirnyk, Selydove, Shakhtarske, and Vyshneve.

➡️ In the south of the Donetsk region, the front is collapsing. We're talking about a loss of 2 to 5 kilometers per day in this area. At this pace, Russia would need another six months to reach the Dnipro region.

But the following day, Ukrainian political commentator Ruslan Bortnyk pointed out that Roepke is in fact excessively optimistic. Or rather, his math doesn’t work out:

I drew a line from Selydove to Dnipro city (Ukraine’s fourth largest city), as Bortnyk recommends

If we’re talking about 2 to 5 kilometers a day, as Roepke says, let's measure and check it. From the nearest frontline points to the Dnipropetrovsk region, it’s 20 kilometers. Not six months—let's do the math. Let's try it a different way.

We’re counting from Selydove now. From Selydove to the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region is 28 kilometers. Maybe Roepke meant the city of Dnipro? Let’s measure from Selydove to Dnipro. I thought the same thing—that people misunderstood him. Checking now—160 kilometers. Listen, even at 2 kilometers per day, that would be 80 days, less than 3 months, not six. And at 5 kilometers per day, that’s only 30 days. Everyone quotes this Roepke report without doing the math or looking at the map. I think there’s an error; he was speaking about something else, maybe a mistranslation or a mistake from Roepke.