What’s next in the war of technologies? Or is the end already nigh?
There’s no shortage of articles in the western press currently about Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian military logistics. ‘The tides of war have shifted’, ‘a turning point has been reached’, two phrases that many journalists seem to have a psychosexual relationship with at this point.
Indeed, such Ukrainian pressure on Russian logistics 50-200 km from the frontlines is new. Until just the past month or two, Ukrainian drone operators were focused mainly on attacking advancing Russian infantry at the frontlines. They also lacked enough of the American Hornet drones that have enabled this new campaign. Finally, Elon Musk’s decision early in 2026 to cut off Starlink access to the Russians has meant that only the Ukrainians have access to this tool, which greatly improves drone strike ranges.
And you can certainly find Russian military bloggers complaining about it in various shades of acopalypticism. There are fuel shortages in Crimea and neighbouring Russian controlled areas. A week ago, Russian authorities banned trucks from entering Crimea from the mainland — the risk of drone strikes is too high, as well as the fear of a truck bomb attack on the Crimean bridge like that of 2022. Understandably, a number of civilian transporters are simply refraining from travelling in the area due to the risk.
Today, Russian military telegrams posted videos of trucks waiting for the fourth day in a row to cross the Kerch strait into Crimea. They criticized the restrictions, calling to transfer fuel with tankers and allow trucks through with a distance between each other.
If this pressure is further increased (it would have to be quite significantly so), more feverish hopes include Ukrainian counter-offensives against Russian defensive positions at the frontlines. Fewer troops and supplies would get through due to drone strikes on logistics. The isolation of Crimea is particularly enticing for the Ukrainians. Popular Ukrainian military telegrams have very exciting ‘news’ for their readers these days, that’s for sure:
However, not everyone is so optimistic. Maria Berlinska, Ukraine’s most well-known (and not always liked) drone ‘volunteer’, wrote on the topic today. I’m not her biggest fan, but her logic is reasonable.
To begin with, she notes that striking Russian logistics (‘middle-strikes’) would at most ‘make the Russians at least stall’. Analyzing how much territory is being taken in the war is these days a painful task, but it does seem like May saw the Russians advance less than before. Nevertheless, Ukrainian advances can only take place with a great deal of troops and much more firepower, and not merely through drone strikes on the rear.
Most important is Berlinska’s warning that any technological advantage is inevitably temporary:
The window for middle-strikes will start closing quite quickly, an optimistic forecast of 2-4 months. The enemy is working on countermeasures.
Of course, Berlinska calls to simply train more Ukrainian drone operators and get ahead in the technological race. There are more cynical interpretations, like that by ‘Tales of the IV Reich’, run by a fairly disillusioned nationalist sergeant.
This is how he reacted today to the latest news that Zelensky apparently hopes to use the logistical pressure on Russia to force the latter to agree to Zelenksy’s ‘peace deal’ in 2026, ‘before the winter’:
What I personally see in these words.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his entourage have set a course toward something resembling a ceasefire—one that the Russians will never agree to. In other words, the goal is not to reach a political settlement and put an end to the conflict without unresolved issues hanging in the air, but rather to freeze the front line while retaining the right and ability to resume hostilities at any moment.
This would make it possible to keep martial law in place, keep the borders closed, and avoid announcing the demobilization of the million-man army that millions of Ukrainians have been hoping for. The basis for these loud statements is the success of UAV strikes deep behind enemy lines, which have resulted in Russian trucks and fuel tankers being burned. There are fuel shortages in Crimea and Mariupol, and civilians in local chat groups are discussing the dangers of traveling between cities. According to the Mindiches, this is what is supposed to force Vladimir Putin to agree to halt military operations and abandon further offensives in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia.
‘Tales’ refers to Zelensky’s elite as ‘the Mindichs’, referring to this gentleman, Timur Mindich. He currently lives in Israel, and I wrote about him here and here. Yes, ‘Tales’ is making ethnic intimates.
In my subjective opinion, Putin couldn’t care less whether a fuel tanker near Melitopol burned down or not. Whether Crimean residents will have fuel to drive from Simferopol to Yalta every weekend or not. Just as Zelenskyy couldn’t care less how many apartments burned in Kyiv and Dnipro during today’s attack, or how many millions of dollars’ worth of cars burn every week in Kharkiv without any compensation from the state.
These are manipulations—another performance staged for Trump, while the public is shown a carrot in front of the donkey: “victory is near.”
In this sort of tug-of-war arrangement, where worker-peasant armies will continue storming and defending patches of bushes near Druzhkivka, fuel tankers will burn near Armyansk, dormitories in Starobilsk will be struck, and in response ballistic missiles will destroy apartment blocks in Kyiv and Kharkiv, the states involved will still be able to keep fighting for several more years.
Meanwhile, the political “elite” will continue ruling and profiting without any risk to their power or their lives.
I’m inclined to agree on this broader picture.
Anyway, today we’ll be taking a closer look at Russia’s technological analogues to the American Hornet drone that has been used to such great effect by Ukraine recently.
Next, we’ll examine the various counter-measures the Russians want to or are implementing to deal with Ukraine’s middle-strike drone campaign. Radar recon systems, AI-targeting interceptor drones, combinations of the two mounted on trucks, and more.
We’ll also see how Russian strike drones are increasing their range through the use of mesh networks — small swarms of drones that support each other’s connection. This is a technology that Ukraine is lagging behind in, complacently relying on Starlink.
As a taste, here’s one particularly colorful counter-measure that’s already been noticed and admired by the Ukrainians. I seem to recall tanks with such devices equipped for a constant smokescreen — I’m excited to see such beasts on the highways. The idea is to confuse the AI detection mechanisms on the drones, which are trained to target truck-shaped (or people-shaped) objects.
Russian AI drone analogues
Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Events in Ukraine.
