Where the line will go. What are the options for a settlement to end the war between Russia and Ukraine

What Ukraine can expect regarding security guarantees and what to expect from Russia

By Denis Rafalsky for the Ukrainian news site strana.ua- original article here, published on 2.4.22 https://ctrana.online/news/384400-cheho-zhdat-ot-rossii-i-chto-budet-s-vneblokovym-statusom-ukrainy.html

From eventsinukraine - one of the more interesting parts of this article is the seeming reluctance of the USA to give security guarantees to Ukraine. Despite the fact that such guarantees are the crucial compromise needed to end the war in Ukraine. One could either explain this by a reluctance by the US to get directly militarily involved in Ukraine, for fear of upsetting domestic opinion, or by a desire for the war to continue as long as possible in order to weaken Russia.

There have been significant changes to what was previously assumed as given in the war between Russia and Ukraine. It can already be said with certainty that Russian troops are retreating from Kyiv Oblast , and that Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun to re-establish control over previously captured areas.

The military and political leadership of Ukraine, however, assesses what is happening with restraint, saying that the outgoing units, most likely, will be transferred to the southeast of the country, first of all, to the Donbass , where the intensity of the fighting, on the contrary, is growing.

This can be regarded as a change in the Kremlin's war goals. More precisely, their moderation. No longer control over the whole of Ukraine, rather, a push to secure the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Such a turnabout gave rise to the idea that this is Russia's preparation for the announcement of the end of its "special operation", if such "minimized" goals are met. And it again intensified talk that soon a truce will be signed between Ukraine and Russia.

Moreover, the meeting in Istanbul regarding all this aroused cautious optimism - the Ukrainian side conveyed its proposals to Russia for a peaceful settlement, at the center of which is the non-bloc status of Ukraine in exchange for international security guarantees (which would be given not only by Russia, but also the United States, China, Britain, France and other powers). 

However, it was met with mixed signals from the West. Judging by leaks in Western media, the United States and its allies are still skeptical about the idea of providing security guarantees to Ukraine if it declares neutrality, and this is the cornerstone of possible agreements with Russia.

Strana analyzes what the outcome of a global peace agreement could look like.

Transformations on the horizon

The course of the war between Ukraine and Russia is qualitatively changing.

The Russian Federation is retreating on the Kyiv vector, withdrawing units to Belarus. But this is not a final withdrawal to Russia, but, most likely, one with the aim of re-forming and relocation to the south-east of Ukraine - most likely to the Donbass, where the main battles will now take place.

Firstly, in the north of the region, where Russian troops are advancing from Izyum, secondly, in Mariupol, where urban battles are taking place, and, thirdly, along the former line of demarcation [between the ‘L/DNR’ and Ukrainian government controlled regions prior to 24.02.22], which the enemy is trying to break through.

Apparently, hostilities are again intensifying in the south of the country - primarily in the Nikolaev region , which is along the Odessa vector.

"I wanted to get to work with sowing, the economy, employment, but plans have changed. I'm returning to informational assistance. Now let’s fuck up these assholes a little," Vitaly Kim, chairman of the Mikolaiv Regional State Administration, said on Friday.

The leadership of Ukraine also believes that the enemy is regrouping forces.

"We know their plans. We know what they are planning and what they are doing. We know that they are moving out of the areas where we hit them in order to focus on other, very important ones. Those where it might be difficult for us," said president Zelensky in his address last night. According to him, the situation in the Donbass and the south remains "extremely difficult."

There, as well as on the Kharkiv vector, "Russian troops are accumulating the potential for powerful strikes. "We will defend ourselves," Zelensky said. 

At the same time, the plans of the Russian command must also be viewed through the prism of negotiations - official and behind the scenes – that are actively ongoing between the warring parties.

This was confirmed by the adviser to the head of the President's Office (OP) Alexei Arestovich.

According to him, Russia is throwing significant forces to the southeast to get a more or less acceptable result by an important date - Victory Day on May 9, and at the same time strengthen its negotiating position.

“By May 9 [the Russian military and the units of the ‘L/DNR’ supervised by them - Ed.] must demonstrate to Putin some result or victory. To strengthen its position, Russia can take Mariupol or try to encircle the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the JFO [Joint Forces Operation, the Ukrainian army forces that have existed to military counter Russian and separatist forces in the Donbass since 2014] zone,” according to Arestovich.

Rumors that they want to show Putin some success by May 9 are also circulating in diplomatic circles, according to Strana sources.

For the Kremlin, some kind of victory (or something that could be presented as such) could be the main element at the background of a meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Putin – preparations for which, as the parties make it clear, are ongoing.

In principle, both meetings at which the Minsk Agreements on Donbass were signed took place after serious defeats by the Ukrainian army (near Ilovaisk and Debaltseve). True, it is not a fact that this time the Russian military command will have something to brag about. But what is clear: the Ukrainian army can expect heavy fighting in the Donbass and in general in the southeast, the outcome of which could seriously affect the outcome of the negotiations.

Influence over negotiations

According to statements from the Ukrainian side, diplomatic talks have ceased discussion regarding the so-called "demilitarization" and "denazification" of Ukraine. Perhaps that is indeed the case: the Russian side has lately carefully avoided these topics in comments about the course of the negotiation process. Or perhaps they were simply transferred to the unofficial part, given the painful perception of these points in Ukraine. Zelensky already has received enough accusations of "zrada" [‘betrayal’ in Ukrainian] from jingoistic patriots.

At the same time, other demands that Kyiv calls unacceptable – the recognition of Crimea as Russian and the independence of the "L/DNR" – have not been abandoned by the Kremlin.

In general, so far the only point on which both sides more or less agree is neutral status with international security guarantees.

Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik draws attention to the fact that the negotiations are actually taking place in several formats, despite the fact that everyone's attention is focused on meetings and video conferences involving the official delegations.

"Negotiations between the delegations headed by Arakhamia and Medinsky (David Arakhamia is leader of the Servant of the People faction in the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, and Vladimir Medinsky is a member of the General Council of the United Russia party- Ed.) - this is one means of communication. Another is the businessman Roman Abramovich, who conducts behind-the-scenes inter-elite communication, talking, perhaps, with the presidents of both countries, or at least the closest advisers, and representatives of some third countries - possibly the UK and Turkey. And the third level of negotiation is a dialogue of business groups – a quite serious element, influencing, apparently, even the choice targets in the Ukrainian regions for strikes by the Russian army and the intensity of hostilities," the expert believes.

The contours of potential agreements are being drawn based on the results of these negotiations. Moreover, perhaps the most important channel in this regard is the inter-presidential one, from which there are no "leaks", notes political scientist Bortnik.

"It is clear that the heads of both states have not yet taken a fundamental decision to conclude any agreements which would involve subsequent political responsibility" the expert concludes.

The allies make things clear

Zelensky’s problems arose from the side that is considered the friendliest at this difficult time for Ukraine.

CNN, citing sources, reports that the U.S. and its allies are discussing Kyiv's request for security guarantees if Ukraine rejects its NATO-course and declares neutrality as a concession to Russia to end the war, an option promoted by Ukraine in the talks. But it seems that the West is not ready for such obligations. Some Biden administration officials admit that another deal like the Budapest Memorandum would not be helpful, and one Western official told CNN that "anything short of being fully committed to protecting Ukraine will not be enough for Ukrainians."

Kyiv, we recall, insists on an international treaty giving security guarantees from permanent members of the UN Security Council (including Russia), as well as Turkey, Germany, Poland and a number of other countries.

However, doubts in the West about such agreements could put an end to such a plan for Ukraine, which would undermine the negotiation process with Russia, whose main demand is the neutrality of Kyiv.

However, international affairs expert Nikolai Kapitonenko believes that it is too early to talk about a crisis of the idea and a potential breakdown in negotiations.

“So far we see only general outlines, it is not clear how everything will work in the end: with what guarantees, how they would fight for us and whether they would fight for us at all, what form of assistance they would provide.

The positions of the states involved will change more than once. And much depends on how the war develops. So far, we see a general exchange of ideas, including through "leaks" to the press," he commented to "Strana".

Options for the outcome of negotiations

On the other hand, with regard to the military campaign, there is more clarity, based on the situation at the fronts. As mentioned above, Russia's concentration in the southeast and specifically in the Donbass is visible. Political scientist Bortnik says that he would not be surprised if Russian troops really leave Chernihiv region after the Kiev region in order to "minimize" losses and concentrate in areas that they consider promising.

“Perhaps they are hoping for air dominance, which will prevent a large-scale counteroffensive of Ukraine here. They will probably try to hold on to the south and even expand the occupied territory at the expense of Nikolaev and Odessa,” the expert argues.

At the same time, according to Kapitonenko, ultimately, after the conclusion of a certain ceasefire agreement, Russian troops could withdraw entirely from all the territories occupied after February 24, except for the Donbass. 

But there are other predictions as well. In Russia, for example, in media circles close to law enforcement agencies, the idea is actively circulating that the already occupied territories in the south of the country (Kherson and Zaporozhye regions) must be "kept for ourselves."

Political scientist Vadim Karasev also does not rule out that the Russian Federation will try to "stake out" a "land corridor" to the Crimea and the entire territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in order to expand the "L/DNR". "After the failure of Putin's blitzkrieg, this will pass as a justification for the war and losses," Karasev comments to Strana.

Another thing is that Kyiv often repeats that it will never agree to territorial concessions. But, in the end, everything will be decided by the situation at the front - where the line will be at located the time of the final peace talks.

“It depends on what the status quo will be in the war at that moment. If Russia retains Crimea and Donbass, the story of the South Kuriles, which Japan recently called occupied by Russia, may repeat itself. There has been no peace treaty after 1945 between Tokyo and Moscow because of the Kuriles. But not to fight indefinitely. The issue of territories remains unresolved and set aside. However, first the USSR, then Russia and Japan have had diplomatic relation and trade with varying degrees of intensity. A similar option could be repeated in our case. However, the issue of occupied areas remains open in the south, including Kherson. In any case, the war, which was surprising in Ukraine’s resilience, continues, and so far we are talking purely about its results hypothetically and with faith in our people," says political analyst Vadim Karasev.

Finally, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President's Office, gave another forecast. He believes that Russia will strive to keep the southeast no matter what. At the same time, it will choose a format of war that will not be exhausting for Russia.

“’Afghanization’ and a long, debilitating conflict for Russia, as some expect, will not happen. The Russian Federation will leave all territories, except for the south and the east, and will try to dig in tightly there, create air defense systems, drastically reduce losses and dictate terms," he said.

That is, according to the logic of Podolyak, Russia wants to continue fighting on Ukrainian territory (but minimizing its losses) until Kyiv agrees to Moscow’s conditions, taking into account the devastating consequences of the continuation of the war for Ukraine.

In order to avoid such a scenario, according to Podolyak, Ukraine needs heavy weapons supplies from the West.


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