Give the armchair patriots a knife
20km lost a day. Azov: we need a ceasefire, any ceasefire. Russian fiber-optic drones. Dead souls. Pokrovsk corruption. Russian tactics.
Today’s war newsletter will focus on meta-issues, not just who took what on the frontline. Tomorrow’s post will do that, as well as some information on the latest stunts in the Kursk region. Today’s topics include:
Statistics on Ukraine’s territorial losses
Ukrainian militarists on war and peace. Azov’s great Leader on the need for a ceasefire, any ceasefire
The Russo-Ukrainian knife fight: Ukrainian frontline militarist calls to ‘give the armchair patriots a knife’. “In the meantime, truly, war is when people who don't know each other kill each other for the interests of people who know each other all too well.”
Weapons: the struggle for drone domination, Russia’s superior new fiber-optic drones, Ukrainian criticism of western ‘wunderwaffen’ fixation
Numbers: just how many Russian soldiers are in Ukraine? What kind of numerical advantage do they really have? Profitable dead souls in the army
Corruption - hundreds of hryvnia spent on officials’ salaries and public amenities in ruined frontline Pokrovsk
Organization and training issues versus intelligent orcs. “I have to be fucking frank, their preparation here is at a high level. Now they are creating a foothold to move forward!”
Muchnoy Jugend’s interview: opinions on Syrsky, problems with salaries, western weaponry, and the latest on the DeepState saga
Ukrainian militarists complain about intelligent Russian tactics and Ukrainian military crudity
Mournful frontline poetry: We were shot down like targets in a shooting range,
While someone at the headquarters earned their medals.
To begin, two relevant numbers.
First, war: top liberal-nationalist ‘military fundraiser’ Taras Chmut calculated that Ukraine has been losing 20 square kilometers of territory per day. This is what he wrote in a January 4 twitter post:
Are we winning or losing? Let’s look at the numbers.
The editorial team at @mil_in_ua, using public and open-source information, analyzed the changes on the frontlines over the past year.
The key figure: we have lost approximately 3,600 km² of territory in all directions — Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv regions.
Is this a lot? Everyone can decide for themselves. For example, in 2023, we lost about 540 km² but liberated around 430 km².
On the other hand, this year we carried out a lightning operation in the Kursk region, gaining control of approximately 1,100 km², of which we still hold about 460 km².
But for me, the saddest part of these numbers is something else — the accelerating momentum of the Russian offensive:
In June, it was around 100 km² per month and 3.4 km² per day.
By September, it increased to 400 km² per month and 13.4 km² per day.
The peak came in November, with 610 km² per month and 20.3 km² per day.
Think about it: we are losing 20 square kilometers every single day.
Next, peace.
A January 3 poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that the number of people willing to cede territory for peace and preserving independence has doubled over the past year. In December 2023, 19% held this view, but by December 2024, the figure had risen to 38%.
It isn’t hard to see the independent variable - with the above graph starting in May 2022, the proportion of orange answers shifts substantially upwards (from 10% to 14%) between May and October 2023 - right as the much-heralded counter-offensive failed. And it keeps on rising as the prospect of regaining lost territory transforms into the reality of losing already-held territory.
Such sentiment is most prevalent among residents of the war-torn south (40%) and east (41%). In the relatively peaceful west, the figure stands at 35%, and in the central regions, it is 38%.
Peace
I’ve written at length here about the main division regarding peace among Ukraine’s civil society (ie, the nationalist core ~20% of society with the privilege of having political opinions).
On the one hand, there are the ‘grant-feeders’ or ‘Sorosites’ along with Zelensky and his coterie, who support forever-war. The grant-feeders because their grant-givers across the Atlantic say so, or because they know that wartime is when the grant-flow really gets going. They are also supported by ‘Sorosite nazis’ like Serhii Sternenko. Zelensky and co because they know that any peace means political democratization, and political democratization means Zelensky is lucky to find himself in prison, given the amount of powerful enemies he’s made in wartime.
On the other hand, there are the frontline militarists, plenty of whom support a ceasefire. This is the likes of the Azov batallion. Unlike the Sorosites or Sternenko, they are on the frontlines risking their lives. They also have a clearer idea of the strain facing the Ukrainian army, and fear a collapse of the military and state.
Of course, frontline militarists are hardly pacifists, and generally say something along the lines of ‘we need to keep fighting to make sure that any ceasefire doesn’t betray our interests and is on our conditions’. And among the sorosites, particularly Radio Free Europe’s Ukraine branch, one sometimes does get the impression they believe that Zelensky-style forever war threatens state collapse. On the other hand, they probably think that the solution is putting more honest patriots in charge… In any case, somewhat of a division is clear.
On January 4, Azov’s leader Andriy Biletsky, the ‘white Fuhrer’, had this to say about ceasefire in an interview. He decided to take on the popular Zelenskite/nationalist narrative that ‘sure, we support a ceasefire, but only on our conditions’:
If there is a ceasefire under any conditions, on January 20 or at any other time, there’s nothing inherently bad about it as long as we focus on modernizing the country and the security sector. If there is a ceasefire, nothing catastrophic will happen unless we fall into anarchy, endless conflict, and debates over who fought more, who is a greater hero, who is a better volunteer, and who loved Ukraine more over the past three years. As long as we avoid this anarchy and start modernizing the country, then it’s fine.
As I wrote in my August 2 article on the matter of nationalists and ceasefire, ‘the Fourth Reich demands peace and purges’. They are certainly worried that with forever-war, the popularity of ‘pro-Russian’ ‘peace populism’ will only grow. And they have reason, as two recent media events showed.
First, back in mid-December the ‘pro-Russian’ politician Yury Boiko called for a ceasefire and criticized Ukrainian nationalism in general. In response, all manner of nationalist telegrams called to execute him, and he later apologized after some visits from the Security Services. In any case, it shows that the popular demand for peace is strong if Boiko was willing to risk himself to such an extent.
And a few days later, close media attention erupted towards Azov’s Denys Prokopenko’s real estate acquisitions in the capital. Such insinuations about the ‘hero of Mariupol’ would have been unthinkable even at the start of 2024. Clearly mobilization and things like the endless military torture sandals have done much to degrade the image of the AFU soldier.
Officer, December 30:
Personally, I wouldn’t mind if the war ended even right now. Of course, much depends on the conditions of its conclusion, but the momentum of the war has grown so much that everyone understands the impossibility of an abrupt stop.
However, amidst this darkness, we can see a glimmer of light—good news is expected in the coming days, and hopefully not just one.
Wishing everyone peace. 🫡
Azov’s military analyst Roman Ponomarenko, January 3:
The closer it gets to January 20, the more Ukrainians hope that the war will soon end. However, if we look at the situation on the frontlines, there are currently no prerequisites for this to happen. The war remains at a stage where neither side can deliver a decisive blow to force the other into peace. Russian advances in Donbas come at a very high cost in blood, and despite all the challenges faced by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they do not lead to a collapse of the front. Most importantly, the human and material resources of both countries are far from exhausted. Under such conditions, the very premise for starting peace negotiations is absent.
Moreover, resolving the conflict through negotiations, where neither side achieves its goals, is guaranteed to be unpopular with the elites and societies of both countries. The consequences for the ruling classes could be catastrophic, and they are well aware of this. Therefore, from an objective perspective, it currently appears that both governments are likely to continue hostilities, hoping to secure a more advantageous position for negotiations or that the opponent will be the first to lay down arms.
Thus, it's not the time to relax.
The Aidar Batallion’s Stanislav Buniatov, January 2:
You can read about Aidar’s activities here and here. Quite unsavory people.
Most people say that no negotiations are needed, but I hold a slightly different, subjective opinion.
Negotiations are needed, but not on the terms imposed by the Russians. We need to fuck the Russians up and gain some leverage for these negotiations because right now, all we have is the Kursk region, which is shrinking every day and taking our people with it.
To achieve this, it’s not enough to just shout about the "insufficient cost for the Russians." We need to transition to robotic assaults, stop fundraising for drones that have already been tested long ago, and witness real action against corruption and traitors.
We will either prevail through technology or lose and sacrifice those on the front lines who are more worthy of this country than anyone else.
There are no other options.
This, by the way, was Buniatov on December 18, responding to Boiko’s call for a ceasefire on non-nationalist grounds:
Boyko, die, you animal!
If there’s an opportunity to legally eliminate people like you, I’ll do it for fun.
Is he really harder to take down than a russak in Moscow?
Mr. Maliuk, keep working 🛴
Maliuk is head of the SBU, Ukraine’s security services. I mentioned him in my article on the SBU here. Here he is with a friend.
The 46th Brigade, January 3:
For those not in the know, this was a knife fight that took place in mid-2023, but the bodycam video of which emerged a few days ago and took the internet by storm. Though the Russian eventually won, the Ukrainian in his dying breaths praised him - ‘You were the best fighter in the world’. This is at 6:30 in the video. Don’t watch unless you want to. Source of the translation here.
Russian military telegrams praised the conduct of both fighters. It ties in quite well with their narrative of the two brother, warrior nations pushed to fight by external forces. Ukrainian military telegrams either avoided talking about it or said that it made them very depressed (eg Buniatov here).
Anyway, onto the commentary from the 46th, which I included mainly for what it says about those who call for forever-war while located far from the front:
Many have seen the video where our Warrior fought hand-to-hand with a russian to the very end, falling as a Hero—in battle. For many, this video was a shock; for those on the front lines, it was just another page of the war. From Kursk to Kherson, such battles—always with varying outcomes for the opponents—happen daily by the dozens, if not hundreds.
But this video must be shown to the armchair "back-to-the-1991-borders" experts. If you're ready, then join us; we'll give you a knife and then a "platform" for your "expert opinion." If you survive.
It must be shown to our PR puppets—those "opinion leaders"—who, while holding their meetings, long ago decided they have a free pass from responsibility for their words.
It must be shown to politicians who are still thinking not about how to end the war but about how best to position themselves after it. Preferably by imagining one of their own sons in the place of our Warrior in the video.
We guarantee a radical shift in their consciousness.
In the meantime, truly, war is when people who don't know each other kill each other for the interests of people who know each other all too well.
Numbers
I recently finished a three-part series arguing that Russia is able to push forward on the front despite numerical inferiority/equality with Ukraine in large part because of the low motivation of Ukrainian troops. Here is another intervention in the topic. First by (pseudo-)patriotic Poroshenkite (anti-Zelensky) politician Oleksiy Honcharenko, and then from a much more bonafide frontline Valhallan warrior.
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