You don't put much stock in the idea that Zelenskiy is making unrealistic demands on NATO/the West in order to prepare a switch to a more pro-Russian alignment? I've seen Leonid Ragozin for example suggest this.
Yes , it's an interesting idea. It was proposed by Yury Lutsenko, a well known Poroshenkites
But the thing is, Zelensky has already been denied NATO entry to the west by NATO many times
If we are speaking in terms of such a conspiracy, I find arestovychs idea more logical - that zelensky is waiting for/actively contributing to a large military defeat, in order to disillusion "society" and get them ready for peace
But generally I find that less convincing than what I wrote in this article
I don't know, but it could be a cover for capitulation, allowing Zelensky to say to the Viking-themed Hindu-symbol-using contingent in Ukraine that he was forced to surrender because of Western treachery. If this is the plan, it would map into Viking-themed Hindu-symbol-user narratives about how the West is secretly afraid of Russia losing.
It is something of a mystery to me how anybody falls for "the enemies are incompetent morons!" stories. This is bog-standard propaganda used over and over again in war after war. Believing it requires childlike naivete.
You totally misjudge the financial situation in the Western countries. To say you don't think it because of supplying Ukraine weapons is ridiculous. You didn't even mention the billions of dollars, Euro's & British pounds that these hard up countries have been sending to Ukraine. The Western countries were in a financial mess well before the Ukrainian parasite became an issue. The Western countries saw the resources in Ukraine as their way out of the mess . They totally believed they'd inherit all of Russia's resources also. They totally believed their massive sanctions attack on Russia would weaken Russia so much . It would be a walk in the park for Ukraine to defeat Russia. You seriously miss the whole point of this conflict. It's about the West wanting to remain as the world's financial top dogs especially the US. Now they dace financial disaster the EU is on the brink of collapse. I personally believe you really need to look at the financial situations in each western country. You'll soon see a very similar pattern in all of them.
The west is economically doomed in the long run. But we’re all dead in the long run, as they say. They can certainly sustain a couple more years of this, which is what I mean by a long war. Anyway, they spent far more in Afghanistan, Iraq. It benefits the US economy. The US doesn’t care that it damages Europe
I do not believe they can sustain this. We know the production numbers of NATO artillery shells, cruise missiles, interceptors (which are breathtakingly low -- the US fired more Tomhawks at the Houthis in a few days last year than it makes annually, monthly production of Stingers is 40 (!), annual production of Patriot interceptors is 500, etc.), and we know the approximate amount used in the war. This is not sustainable.
With some qualification. It is probably sustainable in that they could keep Ukraine supplied with enough materiel to hold limited defensive positions for some time. To support offensive actions? I very much doubt it. The US is projected to reach a production target of 500,000 155mm artillery shells some time next year. Russia is in the meantime making something like 3 million, PLUS supposedly another 4 million from North Korea.
Perceptive.
God, I feel bad for the Ukrainian people stuck between the hammer and anvil. Sober analysis, and a great article.
You don't put much stock in the idea that Zelenskiy is making unrealistic demands on NATO/the West in order to prepare a switch to a more pro-Russian alignment? I've seen Leonid Ragozin for example suggest this.
Yes , it's an interesting idea. It was proposed by Yury Lutsenko, a well known Poroshenkites
But the thing is, Zelensky has already been denied NATO entry to the west by NATO many times
If we are speaking in terms of such a conspiracy, I find arestovychs idea more logical - that zelensky is waiting for/actively contributing to a large military defeat, in order to disillusion "society" and get them ready for peace
But generally I find that less convincing than what I wrote in this article
I don't know, but it could be a cover for capitulation, allowing Zelensky to say to the Viking-themed Hindu-symbol-using contingent in Ukraine that he was forced to surrender because of Western treachery. If this is the plan, it would map into Viking-themed Hindu-symbol-user narratives about how the West is secretly afraid of Russia losing.
?
It is something of a mystery to me how anybody falls for "the enemies are incompetent morons!" stories. This is bog-standard propaganda used over and over again in war after war. Believing it requires childlike naivete.
You totally misjudge the financial situation in the Western countries. To say you don't think it because of supplying Ukraine weapons is ridiculous. You didn't even mention the billions of dollars, Euro's & British pounds that these hard up countries have been sending to Ukraine. The Western countries were in a financial mess well before the Ukrainian parasite became an issue. The Western countries saw the resources in Ukraine as their way out of the mess . They totally believed they'd inherit all of Russia's resources also. They totally believed their massive sanctions attack on Russia would weaken Russia so much . It would be a walk in the park for Ukraine to defeat Russia. You seriously miss the whole point of this conflict. It's about the West wanting to remain as the world's financial top dogs especially the US. Now they dace financial disaster the EU is on the brink of collapse. I personally believe you really need to look at the financial situations in each western country. You'll soon see a very similar pattern in all of them.
The west is economically doomed in the long run. But we’re all dead in the long run, as they say. They can certainly sustain a couple more years of this, which is what I mean by a long war. Anyway, they spent far more in Afghanistan, Iraq. It benefits the US economy. The US doesn’t care that it damages Europe
I do not believe they can sustain this. We know the production numbers of NATO artillery shells, cruise missiles, interceptors (which are breathtakingly low -- the US fired more Tomhawks at the Houthis in a few days last year than it makes annually, monthly production of Stingers is 40 (!), annual production of Patriot interceptors is 500, etc.), and we know the approximate amount used in the war. This is not sustainable.
With some qualification. It is probably sustainable in that they could keep Ukraine supplied with enough materiel to hold limited defensive positions for some time. To support offensive actions? I very much doubt it. The US is projected to reach a production target of 500,000 155mm artillery shells some time next year. Russia is in the meantime making something like 3 million, PLUS supposedly another 4 million from North Korea.