The Kursk riddle: if peace, then war

Pompeo, Waltz, Rubio. 'Catastrophe' at Kurakhove. Why Zelensky is clinging onto Kursk.

Trump won the elections - what next? If you’ve been following my substack, you’ll know that I’m not particularly optimistic about the ‘Great Peacemaker’ and his wheeling dealing. Which isn’t to say that it isn’t entertaining to watch, of course.

To begin with, events in the USA - some clarity seems to be emerging on Trump’s foreign policy cabinet. The show is certainly gripping. At first, well-known anti-imperialist Donald Trump Jr promised not to allow any ‘neocons and war hawks’ into his father’s new cabinet. Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley - both known for their ultra-hawkishness, the former for his personal business dealings in Ukraine- weren’t given posts.

Another one of Trump’s noted peace activists came out guns blazing in favor against war on x.com:

But not to be - today the NYT reported that Trump had chosen Marco Rubio as his secretary of state. Rubio is an ultra-hawk on every ‘US enemy’ out there, though he seems most excited to go to war in Latin America, east asia, and the middle east (he’s known for his intimate friendship with AIPAC).

Regarding Ukraine, he has recently said that he supports a ‘ceasefire’ - though I’ll get to what that could actually mean later on in this article. And anyway, was quite clear that he considered the possibility of a ceasefire to be ‘unfortunate’. No doubt he would be eager to avoid such unpleasant prospects.

But another appointment is even less ambiguous. A Trump insider confirmed to AP on Monday that Mike Waltz had been asked by the big man himself to be his national security advisor. Waltz wants to go harder against China and regrets US withdrawal from Afghanistan. And he certainly has some strong opinions on Ukraine, such as the following, proudly posted by the infamous Atlantic Council:

I highly recommend checking out NPR’s interview with Waltz from earlier this month, titled - ‘What would foreign policy look like under trump?’ Here’s his answer:

Ah yes, a ‘diplomatic resolution’ - whose main tools are harsher economic sanctions against Russia and unlimited military aid to Ukraine. As we all know, these two options have never been tried before, and if they have, they worked very well.

Anyway, on a more serious note, should any of this be remotely surprising coming from a party and president who has built his whole brand on ‘defending US interests’, ‘peace through strength’, more US manufacturing jobs (read: the military industrial complex), and more European purchases of US energy resources?

All that this goes to show is that, contrary to the belief of some ‘alternative media’ outlets, US imperialism is entirely beneficial for US citizens. US elections aren’t about choosing between the ‘imperialist and anti-imperialist candidate’, but between the best imperial manager. The empire hasn’t been doing so well lately (which isn’t to say it hasn’t score plenty of goals either). Now they’re trying a new approach - but one that so far looks like it’ll involve upping the ante using old tactics.

The Kursk riddle

My recent military newsletters have focused mainly on events on the Donbass front, particularly its southern region, around Kurakhove/Pokrovsk, where the frontline has been moving most rapidly, with significant strategic implications. The current update is that Kurakhove is closer than ever to falling, which I’ll cover in more detail later this week. For now, here’s the latest update (November 11) from Ukraine’s biggest military analysis group, DeepState:

The N15 highway is the big yellow line leading to Kurakhove. It connects Zaporizhzhia, to the west, to Donetsk in the east.

⚔️ The situation around Kurakhove continues to worsen.

🇷🇺 The enemy is continuing to implement its large-scale plan to encircle the city, approaching from the flanks. As we mentioned earlier, the Russians, having intensified pressure from new directions, are trying to reach the Defense Forces’ logistical routes, and this process is only gaining momentum. As of today, Russian forces are assaulting the positions of Ukrainian troops from the north, south, and east:

🏹 The northern and southern parts aim to bypass the city from the flanks, where the enemy seeks at least to place the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk highway (N15) under fire control, enabling them to disrupt any movement. From the south, they are advancing along the Yasna Polyana-Maksymivka-Trudove direction, making progress despite constant pressure and losses. About 10 km remain from the frontline to the highway, and the infrastructure in this area leaves much to be desired (we’ll show them sometime later). In the north, the Russians have focused their efforts on the village of Sontsivka, attempting successful advances into the village itself, though the Defense Forces have managed to eliminate infantry. Persistent pressure by small groups, which, if they survive, try to hide to regroup, will sooner or later allow them to establish a foothold. Today, the Russians began the day with active artillery shelling. Simultaneously, they are making active attempts to advance into Berestky and Stari Terny.

⚔️ The eastern assault is also progressing successfully for the Russians, as they reach the eastern outskirts of the city and try to consolidate their positions. Here, their efforts to add pressure and create a diversion work effectively for them, as it demands additional resources on our side. They can endlessly report “full control of the city within its borders,” but it does not change the situation.

📋 Simultaneously, an unfavorable situation is developing in the “pocket” around the settlements of Antonivka-Katerynivka-Yelyzavetivka, where Russian forces have become even more active and are persistently advancing on Ukrainian positions. If Russian forces reach the N15 highway, this area will become the most dangerous.

❗️ We must once again remind everyone that “lies will ruin us all,” and even with additional resources arriving in the Kurakhove area, questions about deployment adequacy remain. With such actions, the loss of control over Kurakhove becomes only a matter of time. And if the issue with the flanks is not brought under control, it will very soon turn into yet another catastrophe.

The question arises - given this ‘catastrophe’ in Ukrainian territory, and the major strategic risks for Ukraine’s biggest cities (Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia) once Kurakhove falls - why are Ukraine’s best troops still fighting hard to cling onto irrelevant steppe in Russia’s Kursk region?