Ukraine news snapshot: January 1-3 2024
I’m trying to experiment with new genres on this substack. At first I was considering a roundup of the month’s news, but that was a bit much. So I tried just doing the past week. But that ended up taking forever, so I just did January 1-3. Maybe I’ll try doing more in the future, but then again, a snapshot of news is interesting too.
I’ll try to cover political, rather than purely military news. But generally, the main criteria is news that is unlikely to have made it to English-language media.
The source is the strana.ua website, which gives a critical view of events in Ukraine from an eastern Ukrainian perspective, but which also is insufficiently pro-Russian for online Russian nationalists.
January 1
Border controversies
The ombudsman Dmitry Lubinets sent a letter to the State Border Service requesting information on the documents that border patrol personnel require from citizens for crossing the border, as well as the legal basis for such a requirement.
The ombudsman noted in his Telegram channel that on December 31, huge queues formed at different checkpoints (he published the corresponding video), and some people have been waiting for more than a day. The reason is the increased control of citizens wishing to leave the country.
In addition, as the media write, border guards are rigorously checking documents of people with disabilities and those accompanying them, parents with many children, people traveling through the "Shlyah" system, as well as demanding military registration documents with a record of deferral from mobilization, Lubinets stated.
https://t.me/stranaua/138072
Possibility of taxes on bank accounts
Economist Anatoly Amelin insists that the Cabinet of Ministers' strategy for income growth involves taxing the card accounts of Ukrainians.
He had already stated this before, but the Ministry of Finance denied plans to tax card income.
However, the expert claims that the document adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers provides for such a possibility.
According to him, in the current Tax Code, card accounts are protected from fiscal monitoring through banking secrecy. "Which, according to the National Revenue Strategy plan, will be lifted starting from 2025," Amelin writes.
MP Bezuhla conducts a controversial poll
The majority of subscribers to pro-government MP Maryana Bezuhla (she was previously famous for proposing a law allowing officers to kill subordinates if they refuse a command) do not believe that Ukraine will liberate all its territories up to the 1991 borders.
These are the results of surveys that Bezuhla conducted on her Telegram channel and Facebook. The result is that 69% and 64% respectively do not believe that Ukraine will ever return its territories.
The second most popular answer is that the lands can only be returned after 2030 (12-15%).
Between 6 and 11% of the deputy's subscribers believe that the war will end with Ukraine regaining its 1991 borders in the coming year.
Previously, Bezuhla found out how many Ukrainians are willing to renounce their citizenship to avoid mobilization. According to her survey, 74% of men are ready to give up their Ukrainian passport to avoid being sent to war.
Law or no law, mobilization intensifies
In Chernivtsi region, measures to intensify mobilization are being strengthened. This follows from the decisions of the region's Defense Council, which were signed by Governor Ruslan Zaparanyuk.
Deployment across the region of "notification sites" (apparently, the distribution of draft notices) and mobile checkpoints,
Control over those who are getting jobs and leaving jobs (it's noted that many men now ask their employers to fire them and work "under the table" to avoid mobilization),
Monitoring the timing of medical examinations to prevent their delay,
Instructing mayors and village heads to prevent information leaks about the activities planned by the Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center.
https://t.me/stranaua/138017
A video from the Dragobrat ski resort, where military enlistment officers came on January 1st.
January 2
Migration
In 2023, there was a period when refugees began returning to Ukraine, but now many people are leaving again.
This was stated by the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmitry Lubinets, during a telethon.
Zelensky’s new year message
Important messages were conveyed yesterday in the New Year's address by Volodymyr Zelenskyy. They give an impression of the Ukrainian leadership's military plans for 2024.
The President extensively called on the residents of Ukraine to "make a supreme effort and do more."
He suggested Ukrainians "live by the rule: either you work, or you fight." "Because each of us is capable of more." And he called to "make a choice, who to be: a victim or a victor? A refugee or a citizen?"
The address clearly conveyed a call not to hinder the mobilization, which authorities plan to intensify.
The president also reported that this year the West provided Kyiv with 156 military aid packages. And "next year, the enemy will feel the wrath of domestic production."
There were no promises of more packages from the West, and the mention of their own defense industry indicates that Kyiv seriously considers the possibility of reduced Western support.
Zelenskyy concluded his address with a statement that underscores the uncertainty of the future: "We do not know what the new year will bring." But "whatever it brings, we will be stronger."
At the same time, the president did not articulate plans to return to the 1991 borders, as was mentioned in last year's address, which is quite telling.
No elections
As 2023 ends, so does one of the major political intrigues of the last months - whether the presidential elections in Ukraine will be held on the constitutional date of March 31, 2024.
It is now certain that they will not be held on this date.
This is because today the election campaign should have legally started, but it did not happen.
Moreover, the Rada has not adopted changes to the Electoral Code, which prohibits the conduct of presidential elections during martial law.
Recall that since October, persistent rumors started circulating in political circles that Zelenskyy and his team intended to hold elections in March 2024. Some government representatives also considered this possibility.
Poroshenko comes to Shukhevich’s rescue
Former President Petro Poroshenko promised to finance the restoration of the museum of UPA commander Roman Shukhevych in Lviv, which was destroyed by a Russian "Shahed," using funds from his foundation.
New government in Warsaw, old trade war continues
The new Polish government led by Donald Tusk will maintain the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain into the country.
This was stated by the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Czeslaw Siekierski, in an interview with the TVP Info channel, as quoted by the ministry's account on X. According to Siekierski, the ban will remain in place until new rules are developed at the European Union level.
"We must maintain the embargo until conditions that will replace it are agreed upon. I believe that implementing transport licensing would be a good solution," the ministry quoted the official as saying.
Siekierski, as reported by polskieradio24, also commented on the restrictions on incoming grain, expressing the view that Ukrainian grain exports should follow a different route than through Europe or Poland.
"Because there is always a certain risk, even with transit, that some of the grain and other agricultural products will remain in Poland," said the head of the Polish Ministry of Agriculture.
Mobilization law to be modified
Deputy head of the "Servant of the People" faction Yevgenia Kravchuk stated that the Verkhovna Rada will not put the bill to vote in its original version. According to her, this week, an interdepartmental working group will start operating in parliament, which will develop a compromise version of the document.
Kravchuk noted that the bill has been criticized by the ombudsman (who called it unconstitutional), and there are concerns about increased corruption risks.
Mobilization intensifies in practice
Information from various regions indicates that checkpoints are appearing where draft notices will be handed out. This has been reported, for example, in the Kyiv region. The Kyiv Regional Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center reported this in response to a request from Ukrainian Truth.
The regional military commissariat states that the commandant's office and police have been tasked to "search for individuals violating mobilization legislation" at checkpoints.
In Odessa and the region, messages are being sent today on behalf of the regional military administration to mobile phone subscribers calling for enlistment in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Divisive humor on Zelensky’s old comedy show
The "Kvartal 95" studio got into a scandal because of a New Year's act that demeaned the residents of the city of Skadovsk, located in the part of the Kherson region occupied by Russians.
It was a sketch about a girl who moved from Skadovsk to Transcarpathia. In the story, she tries to speak Ukrainian but makes mistakes and cannot remember the pronunciation of even elementary words.
Notably, the audience in the hall laughed heartily throughout the act.
However, the act triggered a wave of criticism against "Kvartal 95" online. Specifically, the mayor of Skadovsk, Alexander Yakovlev, made a statement condemning such jokes about the people of Skadovsk, who need support.
"Jokes about 'tits' from Skadovsk probably seem very witty to some. But let that be on the conscience of the directors. I hope they have the strength to apologize to Ukrainians," the mayor stated.
Ordinary people are also leaving negative comments under the video.
People are writing: 'It's a slap in the face'; 'I myself am from Skadovsk, I've never heard people talk like that there, this video is very offensive to me. I hate you after this. Is this how you unite Ukraine? Shame on you'; 'Second-hand embarrassment! How could you, people in Skadovsk speak very beautifully in Ukrainian and in Russian too. I want to know the authors of this crap! I want to know every last name!'; 'This is rock-bottom. You have to be a really rotten person to mock people from the occupied territories so disrespectfully," users comment on youtube under the video.
January 3
More Kvartal 95 events
In its New Year's episode, "Kvartal 95" decided to joke about the people's deputy Alexander Dubinsky, who is in pre-trial detention (I translated an article about it this week), and rumors about a conflict between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
At the beginning of the New Year's concert, studio actor Yevgeny Koshevoy advised the audience and Dubinsky to "take a seat, because this is going to take a while." ( ‘take a seat’ is a phrase meaning to go to prison).
"Kvartal 95" also performed a sketch on the theme of a New Year's conflict between Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy. During the act, actors portraying Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy said that even "a fool understands that the conflict between them is fake."
"A fool might understand, but his channels are spreading it," Zelenskyy declared, hinting at Petro Poroshenko.
"Zaluzhnyi" suggested "Zelenskyy" go out and embrace him in public to dispel all rumors about their conflict. But "Zelenskyy" stated that this wasn't an option.
"Because then I'll have a conflict with Yermak (Head of the President's Office — Ed.) for hugging others. Do you understand?" he said.
The "1+1" TV channel will remove the offensive "Kvartal 95" act about the displaced person from Skadovsk.
The press service of the "1+1" TV channel stated to journalists, "We understand the public outrage and apologize to the audience who were offended by this act. The creative team that created this episode did not intend to offend the feelings of Ukrainians in any way. In 'Vecherniy Kvartal' episodes, the team jokes about themselves, addresses current topics, sometimes exaggerating them, as it is one of the laws of humor. This was exactly such a case."
However, the act is still available on its YouTube channel.
Earlier, "Kvartal 95" actor Yuriy Velykiy apologized on Instagram for the controversial act about the displaced person from Skadovsk.
Velykiy stated that the "Kvartal" team intended, on the contrary, to encourage Ukrainians to speak their native language and not be afraid of making mistakes.
"We definitely did not want to offend anyone from the Ukrainians, especially those of our people who are now under occupation. And if this act hurt someone's feelings, we apologize. But we definitely cannot be blamed for not understanding the pain of our fellow citizens from the temporarily occupied territories, especially since some of our actors and authors were born in these cities," he wrote.
A twist in the Kvartal controversy
Actress Irina Gatun, who played the displaced person from Skadovsk in the derogatory role in the "Kvartal 95" act that caused the scandal, called those "stirring up hate" around this sketch "paid scum."
She made the statement on Instagram.
"I sincerely apologize to those who were truly offended. The essence of the act was that we should speak our native language in our country, even if it's not perfect at first. That's all. And to those who were truly hurt, I sincerely apologize again. But to those paid scum who are deliberately stirring up this hate, I want to say: you and your Putin are d**kheads," the actress stated.
Meanwhile, Gatun was added to the "Mirotvorets" website due to her photographs from Crimea, which she visited several times after the annexation. Social networks also uncovered her photo from May 9, 2015, in Soviet military uniform.
Bezuhla enters the fray
Following the controversial act about Skadovsk, Maryanna Bezugla suggested that the comedians of "95th Quarter" go to the front.
Mobilization proposals and reality
In Ukraine, a proposal has been made to consider a mobilization method "through a lottery or random draw."
Former Minister of Economy Tymofey Milovanov wrote about this on his Facebook page.
"Most of my readers write that the right approach to mobilization is through a lottery or draw. The state randomly selects a day and month. Those people who were born on these days are mobilized, others are not. And so it proceeds for each wave of mobilization," Milovanov wrote.
Social media user comments on the former minister's proposal are mostly sharply negative.
In Odesa, due to the mobilization of the male population, there's a shortage of bus drivers, so the authorities want to recruit and train women to drive.
This was reported by the city's mayor, Gennadiy Trukhanov, during the testing of a new tram, as reported by "Suspilne".
Tensions are also rising at the border, where recently, many eligible for exit have been stopped from leaving, with authorities demanding certain documents from the military recruitment office.
Following the introduction of new rules, a father of 8 children (by law, fathers with at least 3 children are eligible for exit) was not allowed to leave the country. The family then went to the military recruitment office, but they were told there would be no amendments as the man is not registered at the Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center (TCC).
Today, it was reported that border guards opened fire during the detention of draft evaders at the border with Hungary. The men attempted to flee from the border patrol. Warning shots were fired.
The economic front
Devaluation sentiments among Ukrainians have significantly intensified, as confirmed by the latest official report from the National Bank.
The regulator reported an increase in net foreign currency purchases by the population (the difference between buying and selling) by 1.6 times last month — from $0.62 billion in November to $1.026 billion UAH in December 2023. This includes both cash and non-cash purchases by individuals.
This indicator is 2.2 times higher than in December 2022 ($0.46 billion) and 5 times exceeds the level of December 2021 ($0.2 billion). The net monthly purchase of $1.026 billion UAH by citizens is not only the highest figure since the start of the full-scale war but also for more than 11 years.
All quiet on the Shegin front
Polish farmers are threatening to resume the blockade of the "Medica-Shehyni" crossing point as soon as tomorrow, January 4th, if they do not receive written guarantees that their demands will be met, as reported by PAP.
Farmers are demanding the introduction of subsidies for the purchase of corn and to leave the agricultural tax unchanged. They promise not to resume the blockade if they receive written assurances that their demands will be met.
It is worth noting that Polish farmers had been blocking the crossing point on the border with Ukraine since November 23rd, preventing the passage of goods. They lifted the blockade on December 24th after receiving assurances from the Ministry of Agriculture that their demands would be met.
Debates on how to represent ‘the orcs’
Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade Battalion, Petro Horbatenko, with the call sign "Rollo," stated that the Russian army is better equipped than the Ukrainian one.
He was responding to a question from a young man who asked about the equipment of an average Russian soldier and "how much worse it is than ours."
"The Russian army is no worse than the Ukrainian one, even better. It is technologically better equipped, has more machinery, better weapons, better equipment than the Ukrainian one. Where did you get the idea that they are worse? It's even a kind of humiliation for us. Like: 'why are you fighting with losers and can't do anything?'. But because they are stronger - it's objective," stated Rollo.
According to his assessment, the Russians have not only better equipment but also better state programs for equipping and supplying the army.
"Do not underestimate the enemy, this is a very serious opponent. More serious than most of the world's armies. Treating them as fools and losers means we are the fools and losers if we lose so badly," added Rollo.
Other commanders advised turning off the telethon at home.
Open to Trump
The head of Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), Dmytro Kuleba, believes it is possible to work with Trump, as reported by Radio Liberty.
Dmytro Kuleba stated that Donald Trump's possible return to the U.S. presidency after the elections to be held in November this year does not necessarily mean the end of American aid to Ukraine – it just means that a different approach is needed with Trump.
"Trump is perceived thanks to his, I would say, ultra-charismatic actions, his reputation and phrases. But who sold the first American weapons to Ukraine? President Trump – Javelin. Who started the program of free transfer of the first naval ships, boats like the Island and Mark-6 to Ukraine? Trump. Who fought 'Nord Stream 2' and imposed sanctions on the now infamous but somewhat forgotten vessel Fortuna, which was laying this pipeline? It was Trump," noted the minister.
According to Kuleba, if Trump wins, he will be a "very different president" than Joe Biden, but this should not frighten Ukraine.
Military industry plans and problems
The production capacities of Ukraine's defense industry complex (DIC) tripled in 2023, and for the current year, the ambitious goal is to achieve a six-fold increase.
This was announced by Ukraine's Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal on his Telegram channel.
"The production capacities of the Ukrainian DIC in 2023 have tripled. A new goal for the current year has been set – a six-fold increase," declared the Prime Minister.
"This means more drones, more ammunition, more cartridges, and more armored vehicles for our military. We are entering the new year 2024 with new strength. Confident in our own capabilities and the solidarity of allies, we are ready for new challenges and firmly believe in our victory," emphasized Shmyhal.
He also added that this year the authorities plan to spend more than 750 billion UAH on payments to military personnel and over 265 billion UAH on the purchase, production, and repair of weaponry.
Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal recently stated that 300,000 people are employed in Ukraine's defense complex.
And President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the creation of the Defense Industries Alliance.
"Ukraine is interested in localizing the production of equipment necessary for defense, and each of the defense systems used by Ukrainian warriors that yield the best results in weapons manufacturing," the president declared while speaking at a forum.
A missile struck the workshop building where Ukrainian drones are developed and modernized yesterday.
This was reported on Facebook by former People's Deputy, now serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ihor Lutsenko.