I will say that in terms of "the heartland", I would say that Western and Central Europe is very much increasingly irrelevant, and it's becoming less and less true in terms of their influence. John Mearsheimer recently said that basically Europe is going to be less economically important and less militarily powerful than even the Middle East.
"Worth pointing out Mearsheimer predicts Europe will become more geopolitically, economically, and militarily weaker than even the Middle East. It’s why he advocates for U.S. pivoting to Asia and leaving NATO. They serve no strategic purpose or value."
China and East Asia is where the action is going to be at. But it is Russia who is taking the initiative to develop stronger ties with China, not Western Europe or the US. And of course Russia is actually doing this as a result of the actions of the US and the West (sanctions, war, seizing assets and more)
Europe cemented its irrelevance by following the US sanctions on Russia, no protest when the US bombed the Nord Stream, etc. The European economy has suffered to the point where European reports say things like this:
'Now conditions have changed,” Draghi said. “World trade is slowing. China is actually slowing very much, but it’s become much less open to us, and actually it’s competing with us in global markets on all accounts. We’ve lost our main supplier of cheap energy, Russia. And now we have to start for our defense again for the first time since the Second World War.” Apparently, the jokers ruling Europe from the big top tent in Brussels are shocked to discover that they’ve been victimized. Who could possibly have done such a thing?
'Gotta love the use of the passive there. “Lost” their cheap energy from Russia. Like it just fell out of their pocket like a set of house keys on the way back from the store.
'The whole report is just loaded with gems, like this one: “If Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage. We will not be able to finance our social model. We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions. This is an existential challenge...” '
And with the coups in Africa (like Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali) where they're nationalizing their resources and kicking out the US military bases, Europe and the US will keep having less and less influence in the future world.
Europe's terrible industrial policy and a decade of focusing on austerity has done it much harm. I didn't think I'd see it bounce back at the core with Germany's slowing economy as opposed to just the peripheral countries in the South and East of the continent. But here we are; and as for the UK, they are similarly in bad shape via both the same ideology and how they've handled Brexit.
The quotes from Draghi's report are very funny. He seems to recognise the problem, but not his own responsibility on the matter, just on the internal handling of fiscal matters within the EU. If sorting out the European house is not on their cards, they won't even try to manage any form of strategic autonomy, doubly so if elites of CEE Member-states are acting more hawkish than the US in their rhetoric.
Despite all this, I don't think the EU or CEE will become completely irrelevant. Firstly because the Middle East is in tatters, and they too will need both unity and strategic autonomy as opposed to what they have now. In addition, it can remain an important transit station and have some specialist industries; plus not all the neo-colonial structures have fully dissolved.
It's unfortunate, because someone with vision could have done valuable moves to at least converge the EU and EAEU blocs and formed an important bloc in world affairs. But elite interests diverged too much; any chance of that might have already been lost in the 2000s, if not the 1990s. None of the elites in CEE seem to have seen their crossroads position as a bonus, with the exception of some who merely used it to maintain their power, not expand it.
I will just say that for Middle East, I think not all of it is in tatters. It's mainly countries along the north and west that got invaded. The Gulf States who are allies of the USA are still developing pretty strongly. And all the new members of BRICS+ are states from across Middle East & North Africa, including UAE, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia & Saudi Arabia.
Very true, I forgot about the GCC. I've seen some contradictory commentary on whether they are pulling a Turkey and being a bit more autonomous or if they're still bound to the Western Imperial core. I have doubts on whether their elites can weather the eventual end of their oil industries given their insane megaprojects there. Ditto for Egypt. But joining BRICS is a prudent choice for sure and may be a lifeline for states like Iran.
In terms of zelensky's intentions I think he's basically wanting to see how the US election shakes out, depending who wins he'll have more or less time to start peace negotiations and secure his own future. I can see the Azov crowd and their ilk killing him if he doesn't get himself out of Ukraine to somewhere safe afterwards.
Very interesting.
I will say that in terms of "the heartland", I would say that Western and Central Europe is very much increasingly irrelevant, and it's becoming less and less true in terms of their influence. John Mearsheimer recently said that basically Europe is going to be less economically important and less militarily powerful than even the Middle East.
"Worth pointing out Mearsheimer predicts Europe will become more geopolitically, economically, and militarily weaker than even the Middle East. It’s why he advocates for U.S. pivoting to Asia and leaving NATO. They serve no strategic purpose or value."
https://x.com/Real_Politik101/status/1810015145449685021
China and East Asia is where the action is going to be at. But it is Russia who is taking the initiative to develop stronger ties with China, not Western Europe or the US. And of course Russia is actually doing this as a result of the actions of the US and the West (sanctions, war, seizing assets and more)
Europe cemented its irrelevance by following the US sanctions on Russia, no protest when the US bombed the Nord Stream, etc. The European economy has suffered to the point where European reports say things like this:
'Now conditions have changed,” Draghi said. “World trade is slowing. China is actually slowing very much, but it’s become much less open to us, and actually it’s competing with us in global markets on all accounts. We’ve lost our main supplier of cheap energy, Russia. And now we have to start for our defense again for the first time since the Second World War.” Apparently, the jokers ruling Europe from the big top tent in Brussels are shocked to discover that they’ve been victimized. Who could possibly have done such a thing?
'Gotta love the use of the passive there. “Lost” their cheap energy from Russia. Like it just fell out of their pocket like a set of house keys on the way back from the store.
'The whole report is just loaded with gems, like this one: “If Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage. We will not be able to finance our social model. We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions. This is an existential challenge...” '
https://www.rt.com/news/603975-eu-mario-draghi-report/
And with the coups in Africa (like Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali) where they're nationalizing their resources and kicking out the US military bases, Europe and the US will keep having less and less influence in the future world.
Europe's terrible industrial policy and a decade of focusing on austerity has done it much harm. I didn't think I'd see it bounce back at the core with Germany's slowing economy as opposed to just the peripheral countries in the South and East of the continent. But here we are; and as for the UK, they are similarly in bad shape via both the same ideology and how they've handled Brexit.
The quotes from Draghi's report are very funny. He seems to recognise the problem, but not his own responsibility on the matter, just on the internal handling of fiscal matters within the EU. If sorting out the European house is not on their cards, they won't even try to manage any form of strategic autonomy, doubly so if elites of CEE Member-states are acting more hawkish than the US in their rhetoric.
Despite all this, I don't think the EU or CEE will become completely irrelevant. Firstly because the Middle East is in tatters, and they too will need both unity and strategic autonomy as opposed to what they have now. In addition, it can remain an important transit station and have some specialist industries; plus not all the neo-colonial structures have fully dissolved.
It's unfortunate, because someone with vision could have done valuable moves to at least converge the EU and EAEU blocs and formed an important bloc in world affairs. But elite interests diverged too much; any chance of that might have already been lost in the 2000s, if not the 1990s. None of the elites in CEE seem to have seen their crossroads position as a bonus, with the exception of some who merely used it to maintain their power, not expand it.
Yeah, great & interesting insights.
I will just say that for Middle East, I think not all of it is in tatters. It's mainly countries along the north and west that got invaded. The Gulf States who are allies of the USA are still developing pretty strongly. And all the new members of BRICS+ are states from across Middle East & North Africa, including UAE, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia & Saudi Arabia.
Very true, I forgot about the GCC. I've seen some contradictory commentary on whether they are pulling a Turkey and being a bit more autonomous or if they're still bound to the Western Imperial core. I have doubts on whether their elites can weather the eventual end of their oil industries given their insane megaprojects there. Ditto for Egypt. But joining BRICS is a prudent choice for sure and may be a lifeline for states like Iran.
In terms of zelensky's intentions I think he's basically wanting to see how the US election shakes out, depending who wins he'll have more or less time to start peace negotiations and secure his own future. I can see the Azov crowd and their ilk killing him if he doesn't get himself out of Ukraine to somewhere safe afterwards.