Telegram roundup
Analysis of events in Ukraine from a variety of political viewpoints. The Kharkiv military situation, privatization, media hypocrisy, Zelensky-Saudis-Putin, mobilization and the economy
Tales of the IV Reich, managed by an Azov sergeant. June 13
Today I read some mocking posts about the 'ineffectiveness' of the Muscovites' offensive in the Kharkiv region.
After a month of fighting in the north of Kharkiv region, the Muscovites control about 160 square kilometers. For comparison: the area of Lviv is 150 square kilometers.
Whether this is little or a lot is for you to decide. It depends on what your conscience allows.
— Aleksandr Dubinsky’s channel, June 15. He is a parliamentarian currently in jail on charges of state treason due to his publication of materials related to Hunter Biden. He is thought to be close to Igor Kolomoisky.
Meanwhile, reality becomes increasingly distorted and harsher. In the news, they try to pretend that they do not notice the daily loss of villages in the East and North, where Russians build fortifications on our territory where, according to documents, they were built by Synegubov along with the future Minister of (the word 'non-existent' would be more appropriate here) Infrastructure Kuleba.
For the conference on the restoration of Ukraine, they are bringing the governor of the Mykolaiv region, Kim, who has doubled the estimates for the construction of fortifications compared to Synegubov's – that is, he won the competition of 'who can steal more for the boss,' and for this, he is rewarded with a union trip to Berlin.
The head of the 'fortification cartel' Golyk [I wrote about the Golyk corruption saga here], who rides a bike with Marchenko in the morning and plays football with Kuleba in the evenings, goes to Austria with a disability certificate (a Paralympian?).
In the Kyiv region, hundreds of units of equipment and four fire trains are extinguishing a fire 'in a garage', because there are no victims or destruction.
The military enlistment office staff are fighting with the doctors and paramedics of the ambulance service because they can't meet the Armed Forces of Ukraine's declared need for '100-110 thousand people' this year, nearly 50 of whom died in the military enlistment office from joyful excitement, naturally.
The parliament is preparing to introduce a 'tax on life,' [he is referring to the proposed tax for those who do not wish to be mobilized] only they can't decide on its level – 20 or 35 thousand hryvnias per month for the right not to die for a great cause, and to transfer this right to less financially successful citizens.
And against this backdrop – photos, videos, movies, and different versions, while the viewer, mesmerized by the ongoing disaster, hasn't realized that the circus tent not only leaks but also burns…
— ‘ukrain1an ê‘ news’, a neonazi military channel. June 16. Note the pro-Arestovich message. I wrote about how much of a political chameleon Arestovich is here
Mostly, people with right-wing views hold weapons; it's hard to find leftists on the front, the right have already fallen there by half," said Oleksiy Arestovych.
He stated that Ukraine should not become a hostage to the Frankfurt School and Western leftists, but should defend its own interests.
— Kost Bondarenko’s telegram. June 14. He is a political analyst with social democratic persuasions.
Two days ago, there was a very strange visit by Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Saudi Arabia, his second this year (the previous one was on February 27th). Again, it was just for a few hours, without an overnight stay, to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed. Again, it was right before Zelenskyy's meetings with high-ranking American politicians (in February, Zelenskyy flew from Riyadh to Tirana, where Blinken and the EU leadership were waiting for him; now, Zelenskyy will meet with Western representatives at the G7 summit). A day before the February visit, Vyacheslav Volodin had flown to Riyadh. Three days before the current visit, Mohammed’s elder brother, Prince Abdul-Aziz, returned from Russia. According to our information, something from Putin was handed over to Zelenskyy, as in February. At that time, the decision was made to ignore the message and demonstratively organize an Armed Forces of Ukraine operation in the Belgorod region just two days before the presidential elections in Russia began. As a consequence, Putin was furious, held three meetings with security officials (March 14, 17, and 19), and announced plans to create a sanitary zone on the border with Ukraine (what we are observing today in the Kharkiv region). Will the new message be ignored? What decision will the West make? And what can be expected this time if Zelenskyy decides to again play the role of Sharik, drawing a 'Native American hut, which is called get lost’
— Aleksey Kusch, a Ukrainian economist of social democratic views. June 13
Privatizing the largest assets during a war is worse than a crime; it's a mistake.
The value of assets in Ukraine is currently at a minimum.
This privatization will not solve any of the stated tasks:
Budget replenishment? The state spends at least 5 billion USD a month.
Let's assume 20 objects are sold for a billion, although this is unrealistic. But let’s say. This money will last for one week of state expenditures. Isn't it too absurd to use such an argument?
Attracting investments and creating jobs.
Again, no. No one will invest in tangible assets in Ukraine during the war.
Investments are possible under state guarantees. But isn't it too ironic: to sell a state asset and provide state guarantees for its preservation to a private investor.
There will be no new jobs. As privatization practice shows, jobs are reduced after selling to private investors, often violating investment commitments.
GDP growth. There might be problems with this too - some assets bought for pennies will be cut for scrap, others will simply be frozen until better times.
Most likely, this entire privatization is just a cover for selling the combined mining and chemical company belonging to Dmitry Firtash (strategically important titanium) and several real estate properties in Kyiv.
I am often asked about the economic model in wartime conditions.
So, state-managed companies can be one of the main tools of countercyclical economic policy.
A countercycle is when, during a crisis, businesses reduce investments and jobs, whereas the state does the opposite.
And war is a crisis; it's a disease, it's total destruction.
Most likely, we will lose our strategic resource - titanium.
And thus, instead of a cluster economy with the development of aviation and rocketry, we will turn into a raw material country with simple economic cycles and a low level of added value.
And since salaries and pensions are derived from the complexity of the economy, they will be low.
By the way, political elites understand cycles well, so they buy homes and apartments for themselves and their mistresses, not the other way around, selling for donations.
The previous head of the State Property Fund is being sought, but I'm sure they won't catch him.
I remember participating in one show where they approached me and offered a reward to "not criticize him too much."
But at that time, I criticized heavily, just in a forceful state, as the classic wrote, "the voice of one is thinner than a squeak, who will hear it, except the wife and not at the market, but close by..."
That's how we lose, like the biblical Esau, our birthright, giving our resources into foreign hands for "a mess of pottage," that is, for pennies..."
— Resident, June 13. This is a popular Ukrainian political analysis telegram.
Mobilization is destroying Ukraine's economy, the trend is so terrifying that the Presidential Office is trying to regulate the situation through the mechanism of exemptions, while ignoring the specifics of the real sector, where only a few earn salaries over 20,000 hryvnias.
The impact of mobilization on business performance is felt by 81% of companies in Ukraine. These data were announced following a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce and Citi Ukraine "Assessment of the business environment in wartime Ukraine."
The President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, Andriy Gunder, reported that less than 19% of businesses in Ukraine were unaffected by the shortage of staff due to mobilization. "Our latest survey showed that the reservation of military-liable individuals is currently the main challenge for business in Ukraine. It significantly affects the business performance results. We will continue to work with the government to find the right balance - the army gets what it needs, the economy and business continue to operate, and taxes are paid," noted Andriy Gunder.