The Yermak-Tatarov shadow war

The Sorosites are not what they seem. The Defense Ministry of Chaos. Trouble at Budanov's 'Island'. The irrepressible Mr Dubinsky. The Chechenkiller. Conspiracy clan wars: advanced level.

In last week’s article, we went into the complex alliance between Zelensky’s entourage and the old Yanukovych-era elite. Today, we will be looking at a more shadowy conflict, one which may or may not exist - that between head of the presidential administration, Andrii Yermak, and head of the Ukrainian court system, Oleg Tatarov.

In investigating this trail, we will encounter some very real questions. Such as:

• Who is actually protecting the Sorosites from mobilization, and why?

• Whence the rumors of the dismissal of both Umerov and head of foreign intelligence Budanov?

• What forces are supporting Budanov against Umerov?

• What’s behind recent criticism of the defense minister Umerov by his former Sorosite allies?

But before answering these questions, here’s a list of the operators we’ll be looking at today:

• The core Zelensky elite - Zelensky himself, head of the president’s office Andrii Yermak, and deputy head Oleg Tatarov. This is often referred to as ‘the Office’ - referring to the Office of the President, or ‘Bankova’ - the street on which the Office is located.

• The parliamentary leaders - David Arakhamiya, head of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, who is reputedly closely allied with prime minister Shmyhal. I have written about this group’s tension with the core Zelensky elite here.

• Liberal-nationalist journalists. They define themselves by pro-western attitudes, western funding (straight from USAID and/or from the Soros NGO ecosystem), ultramilitarism (moreso than many soldiers, who are happy to see a ceasefire), and suspicion or outright hatred of Zelensky and his elite. Big names here are the anti-corruption activist Vitaliy Shabunin and the military journalist Yury Butusov. They are often associated with pro-western, liberal-nationalist oligarch ex-president Poroshenko, though they are also not without conflicts. The main media group here is Ukrainska Pravda - Ukraine’s most influential media publication. Originally a USAID project, but since 2021 owned by Tomas Fiala, Czech business-partner of Soros with media-agrobusiness assets in Ukraine. Other theories abound as to the domestic patrons of UP - one major topic of today’s article.

• Rustem Umerov, defense minister since 2023, when he replaced the archetypically Zelenskite Oleksiy Reznikov. Reznikov, a lawyer for oligarchic disputes in Zelensky’s home region, was removed after lib-nationalist journalists raised a storm of criticism about corruption in military procurements. Umerov was the replacement - a Crimean Tartar originally from the ultimate Sorosite/Atlanticist political party, Holos (favored party of Atlantic Council and Fukuyama). As befits such a person, he even participated in a State Department funded ‘Future Leaders’ program while in high school, spending a year living and studying in the US.

• Kyryllo Budanov, head of the Foreign Directorate of Intelligence. Close to western intelligence services (according to adoring western media portraits), my sources also tell me Budanov in his youth was involved in the rightwing football ultra scene. Whether that’s true or not, he certainly cooperates tightly with rightwing nationalists, and positions himself hawkishly.

• Oleksandr Dubinsky. Originally a journalist and TV personality on oligarch Igor Kolomoisky’s 1+1 (also the homeland of Zelensky’s show business empire), he became a parliamentarian from Zelensky’s brand-party in 2019. In 2020, Dubinsky was one of several Ukrainian politicians involved in releasing new information on Hunter and Joe Biden’s unsavoury Burisma-related activities in Ukraine. At the time, these ‘leaks’ were clearly sanctioned by the Zelensky government as part of a complex domestic and foreign political game. But when Biden came to power in January 2021, things took a turn for the worse. That month, Dubinsky was sanctioned by the US for interference in US elections, and soon after expelled from Zelensky’s party. In November 2023, he was imprisoned on charges of state treason for his role in ‘damaging relations with our main partner’. Luckily for me and my readers, he continues a very active life on telegram from behind bars.

Dubinsky, a major source for the following. But fear not - far from the only source.

Tatarov vs Kadyrov

First, some comedic relief. On August 27, Zelensky conducted a press conference. These affairs always involve some dramatic moments, generally when Zelensky is asked uncomfortable questions by liberal nationalist journalists.

And as usual, Zelensky lost it at the question given by Ukrainska Pravda’s journalist.

Ukrainska Pravda’s Roman Kravets, left. Surely the main character needs no introduction.

Here’s the dialogue:

UP: Regarding the effectiveness of your people - what criteria do you use to assess this? [Zelensky audibly snickers] Is this personal loyalty, or is this results? If it’s in terms of results, then please assess Oleg Tatarov, Rostislav Shurma, Oleksiy Kuleba and Andrii Yermak.

Zelensky: I had an off the record discussion with Ukrainian journalists. And at this offrec, I told you about Tatarov. But if that wasn’t enough, I can repeat myself to you. I didn’t want to say this. This is only known by the USA. Oleg Tatarov, together with Vasiil Malyuk, kil—killed Chechens in Ukraine, in Kyiv while you weren’t here. Is that enough? Should I sack him? So that the Russians can kill him? Because I already talked about this, because I said this is non-public information, I said this to all media at our non-public meeting.

This bizarre exchange was all that liberal nationalist journalists and social media talked about for the next week. Countless memes emerged. It was one of several instances in a press conference where Zelensky seemed more unstable than ever before.

But what to make of the meaning of this dialogue, other than the usual conflict between liberal-nationalist journalists and Zelensky’s inner circle? The lucky journalist who sparred with Zelensky later drew attention to the fact that Zelensky immediately started talking about the Americans - this was interpreted by the UP journalist as evidence that one of the state department’s main, unfulfilled demands is to remove the odious Tatarov. Perhaps.

But according to Dubinsky in some courtroom express commentary, the whole Tatarov-Chechen drama was a masterful PR ploy by Zelensky in kahoots with UP to distract attention from how Russia is moving forward on the Donbass front. Dubinsky claims that Tatarov is happy to play the role of the bete noire for the Sorosite press, thereby distracting attention from the front.

This leads onto the next topic - who really are the Sorosites?

The Sorosites are not what they seem

The obvious narrative about the sponsors in charge of Ukraine’s liberal-nationalist media is fairly obvious, and propagated both by the ‘Sorosite’ journalists themselves and their critics:

Butusov is Ukraine’s most popular military journalist, with over a million youtube subscribers. Shabunin is the leading anti-corruption warrior, whose battles with Zelensky I’ve written about at length. Musiiaka is another anti-corruption NGO leader.

And Butusov is certainly not just a journalist. In 2021, on ‘Holodomor day’, he published a video of himself firing artillery into separatist-controlled Donbass. He claimed that any deaths caused were in revenge for Holodomor. Some commentators noted that the howitzer he fired from was violating the then-active Minsk agreements.

Keep in mind that Butusov does not serve in the army - it even emerged recently that he applied for exemption from mobilization a day after the latest mobilization law was passed. This is despite the fact that he was one of the biggest supporters of harshening mobilization.

He received his exemption on the grounds of his status as a father with three or more children. Normally, the mobilization office doesn’t care how many children ordinary Ukrainian men have. One of his other excuses for why he doesn’t serve is even more amusing - apparently, he was hit by Yanukovych’s riot police during euromaidan, which damaged his eyesight. Tell that to the men with near-total blindness sent to the frontlines.

Back in late 2021, he entered into a 10 minute showdown with Zelensky at an infamous press conference. Among other things, Butusov accused Zelensky of being unaware of crucial military realities.

If that confrontation wasn’t tense enough, Butusov has more. He is also a big brawler, like when he sucker punched the ‘pro-Russian’ parliamentarian Shufrich on a TV debate on February 22, 2022, beating him on the floor for several minutes while the other politicians present tried in vain to untangle them.

Anyway, Butusov’s exchange with Zelensky was almost forgotten because of other highlights at this 2021 press conference. In particular, Zelensky’s declaration he had uncovered a coup against him organized by a motley alliance of Ukraine’s richest man (Rinat Akhmetov), just about all the opposition, and, of course, Putin.

Anyway, Butusov is very busy in maintaining the image of stern nationalist opposition figure. A couple days he released a new video, titled ‘How Much Territory Has Ukraine Lost After the Replacement of Zaluzhny?’ Spoiler - a lot.

Here’s a taste of the top comments:
IN GOVERNMENT, ARE ENEMIES (192 likes)

Ukraine doesn’t have a professional and patriotic government. Traitors and looters are in charge of the country. (82 likes)

But things might not be so simple as a simple Sorosite/Zelensky conflict. I’ve written here before about the theory put forth by the publication Law and Business that the Sorosites, from Shabunin to Butusov, are in fact sponsored by the Zelensky government - specifically, by Tatarov, the bete noire of the Sorosites. Their shrill criticism of Tatarov is hence a red herring. This is also a theory supported by Dubinsky.

More proof of the fact that the Sorosites might not be as vulnerable as they claim comes from the Sorosites’ beloved anti-corruption front.

I wrote an article some months ago about how the Sorosites were bellowing with anger over Zelensky/Yermak/Tatarov’s supposed plot to replace the anti-corruption organs with corrupt government puppets. This was, in Shabunin’s words, all simply one step towards the final goal of ‘physically liquidating us at the frontlines’.

Their main demand was to remove the head of the National Anti Corruption Bureau, Gizo Uglava. They claimed that the refusal to do so was proof that NABU was hopelessly captured by corrupt state interests. But Uglava WAS removed from his leadership role on September 3. Naturally, he blames the Sorosites , which he uses by their somewhat less offensive codename ‘activists and those with international cases’.

But given Uglava’s removal following their lobbying, how is it possible for the Sorosites - Shabunin and co - to claim that they are helpless against the ever-encroaching tentacular power of Yermak/Tatarov?

Volodymyr Boiko is a lawyer-journalist who is consistent enough in his beliefs to actually serve at the frontlines. He and his colleague Rostislav Kravets devote no small effort to exposing the hypocrisy of Shabunin and co. He posted the following on September 19:

Naive people think that Shabunin is free because he is protected by the U.S. Embassy. Sure. I can just imagine the first secretary of the embassy calling the Kyiv Territorial Office of the State Bureau of Investigations (SBI), specifically investigator Roman Kolomiiets, and ordering him not to follow the decision of the Shevchenkivskyi District Court of Kyiv and not to enter into the Unified Register of Pretrial Investigations the report of a criminal offense committed by soldier Shabunin, who is knowingly using a forged military ID, never took the military oath, and was illegally appointed as a combat medic in a security platoon.

In reality, rumors about the influence of the American Embassy are spread by the Office of the President when they need to explain why a certain corrupt official has avoided punishment – supposedly, our partners are asking for them. But when Yermak truly needs to remove a fraudster to replace him with another fraudster, no one pays attention to any embassies. In March 2020, ambassadors from 8 countries came to Yermak and Zelensky in Poltava to ask Yermak not to dismiss Ryaboshapka from the position of Prosecutor General. Did that help much? Kubrakov, Nayem, Kudrytskyi, and Kamyshin were removed from their positions despite the embassy's complaints.

If Shabunin or his closest ally Leshchenko weren’t servicing the Office of the President with their mouths, they would have long been in pretrial detention, and no embassy would have helped them.

This post brings us to a more concrete example of Sorosite-Zelenskite crossover. Serhiy Leschenko used to one of UP’s most famous journalists, and is generally considered the archetypal ‘Sorosite’. He is today a loyal member of Zelensky’s party and government.

Leshchenko, by the way, played a crucial role in the Manafort scandal of 2016 - he was the one who leaked the so-called ‘black books’. In taking the side of the democrats (with fairly toxic results for US-Ukrainian relations), he was the mirror opposite of the pro-Trump Dubinsky, who is in jail precisely for his role in releasing material regarding Hunter Biden’s activities in Ukraine.

Remember last week’s post, which went into how the most opportunistic and cunning sections of the old Yanukovych elite have entered into a marriage-by-necessity with the Zelensky elite, using their ‘hostage parliamentarians’ to give the Office crucial votes needed for key legislation in conditions of parliamentary crisis? Dubinsky also highlights how UP glorified Levochkin’s Rada votes against his own party colleagues in March 2023. He interprets this as yet more proof of how UP secretly works in tandem with Zelensky. Here, I must admit, alternative explanations do exist.

In any case, it’s time to peek behind the veil, into the hallowed halls of power - the Office.

The new grey cardinals

Tatarov, left. Yermak, right

Last week we went into old grey cardinals - Levochkin and Portnov. We also went into their powerful links with the new grey cardinals.

Tatarov and Yermak are generally considered the two most powerful men in the country. Zelensky’s place is a more complex matter.

I’ve discussed Yermak at length here. My favorite description of his relationship with Zelensky comes from the pro-western Ukrainska Pravda - Zelensky is the movie star, Yermak is the producer. Yermak, like Zelensky, comes from the show business world, where he was a lawyer.

Another interesting tidbit from Dubinsky - Yermak, along with Zelensky’s wife, is reputedly the only person with the right to send Zelensky news items and telegram posts. Yermak is himself a compulsive telegram user, particularly enthused with laconic posts written only using emojis.

Yermak is strange enough, with UP’s long investigations into the man focusing on his ability to tune into Zelensky’s sensitive emotional needs in an preternaturally attentive manner. This affinity supposedly seals the fate of anyone who gets on Yermak’s bad side.

But Tatarov is an even more mysterious figure. According to Dubinsky, Yermak is only number two because of Tatarov - ‘and without Yermak’s protection, Tatarov and his cops could never be third’. He then claims that Andrii Portnov, the Yanukovych-era law official I wrote about last week, is number four - he works with Tatarov in coordinating the court system. And that Levochkin, who I also wrote about last week, is number 9, for his parliamentary power and his links with the Kremlin.

I haven’t written about Tatarov so much, though some recent posts have touched on the topic. Tatarov has a much longer background in politics than Yermak. Like Portnov, he occupied an important role managing the court system in Yanukovych’s administration.

Pro-western media, for whom Tatarov probably beats Yermak in terms of favored bete noire, never tire of bringing up Tatarov’s supposed role in repressing protestors during the 2014 Euromaidan. Top Sorosite military journalist Butusov even threatened to unveil new evidence of this in 2020 in response to Tatarov’s open criticism of anti-corruption Sorosite luminary Sytnyk. Nothing came of it.

But what do Tatarov and Yermak want? Most accounts stress the greyness of these two figures, characterizing them as loyal above all else, lacking any political ambition of their own. Tatarov’s life supposedly revolves around his work, with a lack of ostentation appreciated by Zelensky, tired of the corruption scandals wracking his inner circle (Tatarov is also accused of corrupt misdeeds, but anyway). It is because of their loyalty, sources like UP claim, that Tatarov and Yermak have become so beloved by Zelensky.

But that isn’t the only view on the topic. According to imprisoned parliamentarian Aleksandr Dubinsky, Yermak and Tatarov are currently locked in conflict. But before we get into his quite detailed arguments/speculations as to why this is the case, a skeptical pause, and some reassuring encouragement to investigate further.